It truly is just so chilly lately and I love it. I enjoy summery days too, I just prefer them few and far between and I like feeling cosy and rugged up as opposed to wanting to shed my skin for some relief.
It’s my honeys birthday :) I’m going to make a concerted effort to not be too much. I can’t be too much anyway from here but still. I wanted to send him an ubereats voucher for his dinner tonight but it turns out I can’t send it internationally :( It has to be the same currency. I also don’t have his bank account so I can’t just chuck some money in there either. I just want to make him feel special and loved and I thought that was a tiny yet cute gesture. Oh well. It’s his birthdaaaaay! I’m so happy he was born and became who he is and the fact he’s all mine
I’m struggling with my mood a bit recently. Or depression. Whatever you want to call it. I don’t like either word. But flat or empty doesn’t always cover it, just because I feel depressed doesn’t automatically equate to flat/grey/empty/numb/etc. They’re a specific feeling, I can be and feel depressed and not feel any of them - I can just feel detached from life, I guess. Idk. It’s hard to put into words, I’m sure I could find some writer who articulates it perfectly but even then, that’s their feeling, not mine. But I really like reading and hearing relatable feelings, I can feel alone a lot and hearing others feeling the same as me makes me feel less so. Truly Captain Obvious over here. But anyway. I’m struggling more again lately. The last few days. It’s not PMS related, it’s deeper than that. There’s a difference.
Truly anyone can have a podcast, can’t they? I’m listening to one now about book theories and they’re just talking over one another and being quite rude and dismissive and then I realise this is just content I disagree with but their theories have so many holes in them. SO MANY. It’s basically one hole with a flimsy fabric of theory around the outside. So now I’m hate listening because it’s making me grind my teeth and my eye twitch, but no one else has any podcasts about this and I wanna listen to some. It just sounds like they don’t even like each other? I felt so awkward for a lot of it. Also they’re so unprepared, like if you’re going to spout theories then a) know what you’re talking about b) back it up c) look for holes in it and point them out because that’s half the fun and d) you can’t base a theory off of something you don’t even know. Eg. One of them was talking about how X was Y’s dad but neither knew if X was even alive. Like… ? Also none of them are original theories which tbh I don’t care about, it’s just nice to have them condensed into an episode to listen to, but they were so rude and dismissive of the original poster or whatever several times, it made me feel quite uncomfy? So bizarre. I want to not like these books anymore. It’s not fun anymore, everyone’s so hateful and I was reading how people are literally sending death threats to one another because they disagree with their ship or whatever it’s called. Like here’s a thought, THEYRE FICTIONAL AND WHO CARES, GET OFF THE INTERNET AND CALM DOWN. Says me, all in caps, on the internet. I love irony. But so it’s just not an enjoyable fandom anymore which is a shame because I think it’s my first ever I’ve been a part of? And now it’s just… ruined. I also don’t like how divisive it all is, like if you love one character then you hate the other and things. Like here’s a thought everyone, each character is nuanced and is not perfect - stop expecting them to be. And stop bitching and moaning like jfc. So anyway it’s not very enjoyable anymore which is a shame but I’ll just enjoy the books themselves in private and wait til the next is released in presumably the next 8-10 business years. I also don’t have high expectations after the last book in her other series, it was terrible. So rushed and so… it was terrible. Enjoyable enough but I will never reread it, I’ll never reread that series full stop. We’ll never say never but I would be incredibly surprised if I did considering I didn’t like it at all and just read it because I’m a sucker fan girl and they all eventually link together so I kind of have to.
I hate computers and technology and all of it. And by that I mean it’s all excellent and amazing but I am cursed with it. I tried to switch my monitors and things around this morning to be better but now everything is just… wrong. Laggy.
Am I a bad person for considering applying for other roles purely for leverage with my own? Yes. I already know the answer to that. I’m open to working elsewhere, but I’m also not. I’m frustrated right now with what I get lumped with workwise but ultimately we have excellent benefits, I can wfh x3 days a week and my manager is super understanding of my… issues. I kind of want a new job elsewhere because I think it would force me out of my comfort zone, but also… Is that the best thing? I would normally say yes but some days I find everything so so difficult and taking on new processes, a new team, a new environment… it’s a lot. And I know I get very easily overwhelmed. And the fact I have more or less unlimited paid sick leave which tbh I don’t really utilise at all and easily use less than what I’m legislatively entitled to but it’s there. So I feel kind of stuck. And I also feel unsure. One part of me wants to be leading large nationwide change processes or being entirely responsible for project work, but the other part of me knows I’m probably not currently best equipped for that… issues wise. I’m sure I could, but I just struggle so much some days and what if that day I had 5+ redundancy meetings? Having a god awful day and then telling multiple people their role has been disestablished…? Being a part of that process is one thing and I’ve done that and it’s fine, it’s tough at times but fine, but to be actively responsible for the whole process? I just don’t really think I can handle that. Which holds me back. And also the delegation of work SUCKS. And I get stuck training and basically managing the junior team members because my manager can’t seem to do it. Which tbh is fair as she has a tonne on her plate but still, she had that all on her plate before becoming all of our manager so I mean… yknow. Sometimes I wonder if I could go people leadership route, a small part of me thinks I would be good at it, I can definitely listen and I definitely show compassion and patience with our junior members and I can delegate work out easily enough buuuut do I have the confidence to advocate for them? When it comes to pay/promotions? I’m not sure. I’d have every confidence in them but not in myself and if I have no confidence in myself it makes brig bold and pushing for something impossible, like impossible. So. I wouldn’t want to risk someone else’s progression because I’m a damn baby. So idk. So what doI do? I mean I don’t even want to specialise in ER, it’s too much. I want to get involved and build my experience and knowledge more and more, but it can be really tough. Even the other day I was talking to a young woman, younger than me, with cancer. Or rather she was telling me she’s now in remission and pregnant and I honestly couldn’t stop smiling it was such lovely news, but things like that, or an employee displaying shifts in behaviour and it being a result of domestic violence and then having to handle that or just the process of disestablishing roles aka making someone redundant, I guess there’s redeployment which would feel good but still. It’s an emotionally taxing side of HR that I’m unsure I could handle long term. I’m only thinking about this again this morning because I saw a job which does less than I do now getting around $10k more than I earn. Anyway I’ll just keep at it where I am a while longer. It’s probably better for me, right now anyway.
He showed me his recent favourite music last night, it’s one of my favourite favourite things. I tend to like/love majority of it, some I don’t but that’s fine like everyone has different tastes - I think it would be weird to like all of it. It baffles me how controlled his Spotify is, it makes mine look utterly manic… which tbh it is. I just get so.. something, and start making new playlists or adding new things or whatever it might be. Anyway I’m listening to some of the ones he sent me last night today.
He took basically half an hour to call me last night and I know he said he had been talking to his mum but it just felt… weird. And then he didn’t pick up his phone at midnight when I called to say happy birthday, he admittedly called back really quickly but idk. It made me feel uneasy. Like what’s he doing at midnight that he can’t pick up his phone? When I know he’s awake. I know I’m feeling weird about nothing, so it’s fine. It just felt… I don’t know. His sleeping patterns are slipping so quickly lately, it feels like it’s every two weeks not every month like it used to be, and it makes me wonder why. It makes me think things like he doesn’t have a weird sleeping pattern ever and he just uses it as a reason to avoid me because he’s with someone else and how would I know. I don’t think these thoughts are true, I don’t think he’s lying about it all, but it’s just a recurring thought lately. Ever since it became more frequent with less time in between. It’s fine. I know it’s fine. I know there’s nothing wrong, it’s just sometimes idk. I think it’s more fear and worry than anything relating to genuine belief and mistrust.
I love him a lot. A whole lot. The entire lot. I hope he’s having the best sleep with the sweetest dreams. Baby.
I really don’t feel well this afternoon. I feel vaguely crampy and tired but my mood has dropped significantly. I’m trying to perk back up so I don’t wreck his birthday though. It’s not just general it’s entirely work related. I feel like I need to cry and punch a wall and just throw my computer at the window but in a sad not angry way. I am fed up. And so many stupid questions. Like twice today I’ve had PEOPLE IN MY TEAM be like “what’s the link for this” like here’s an idea why don’t you go find it and use some fucking initiative. It’s just pure laziness. So I said you can find it on X and then didn’t help further because what the actual fuck. And it’s literally a link to the system login - how the fuck do they not know this. Which leads me to believe it’s pure laziness. Because they have f all cases either. Anyway I’m just lashing out because I’m frustrated and in a sad mood. Everything’s fine.
I love Jeff Buckley so much. Not all of his stuff, I could take or leave much of it tbh but some of his music… all time favourites. I wonder what my top five would be? I think: - lover you should’ve come over - Last goodbye - Forget her - Lilac wine - Nightmares by the sea I didn’t include hallelujah because that goes without saying, I much prefer it to Leonard Cohen’s one however I would really like to try give Leonard more of a go because mum loves him, I think she saw him live last time he was here, I was going to buy her tickets as a random present before she beat me to it - unless I’m confusing it with someone else? I don’t think so. Maybe. Or was it Nick Cave? Idk. I already like Nick Cave a whole lot, I had a big massive A2 poster of him on my wall as a teenager. Anyway. I also left out so real and grace and I know it’s over and mojo pin to some extent. And dream brother. Okay so the entire grace album + some extras. His only proper album :( anyway I love him and he soothes melancholic little heart and has for a long time. Since I was… 17. 16? Something.
I don’t click easily with people. I was thinking about that today because I felt more lonely than normal. I find it easy to be personable and friendly and all of that, but it’s rare that I feel at ease with someone and like I can somewhat be myself/not overthink into oblivion. And I don’t know why some people are different? It’s not a time thing either, because the people I find myself more at ease with I felt it more or less instantly, whereas I’ve been around the same people for YEARS and… nothing. Like M, I felt at ease with her from day one. K too a bit. Andy definitely. But other women at work? I’ve known them for years, spoken to them daily, I still feel uncomfortable and anxious and paralysed with them. Paralysed in the sense I can’t think of things to say, I can and do but it can be such stilted conversation. Even my own family members, my brother and his wife? Just like that. I don’t feel at all comfortable or anything. I know I naturally find it easier with talkative people, M and Andy for example - both could talk to a brick wall and either not notice or get it to talk back. I don’t mean the not notice in a negative way, I just mean… idk what I mean. It’s a good thing though. I just don’t find it easy. I know a lot of it is due to my social anxiety and the worry and all of that. I think it’s also that I don’t like surface level relationships, but I don’t tend to allow people in enough to get anything further than surface level. I can easily have those conversations, I just don’t really enjoy them. But it can be impossible to go further because I’m so closed off and I’m so riddled with anxiety over saying the wrong thing, unintentionally offending someone or showing how stupid I am that nothing happens. I also don’t like to talk that much, I do but in bursts, and I think that doesn’t help me either. I know I’m the problem. Another thing to add to my list of difficulties.
I wish I could just escape myself sometimes.
I’m due to start reading HP3 now, why don’t I feel psyched about it? I want to. Maybe when I get fully into it I will? I’ve been apprehensive about books in the past and went on to become obsessed and it become a part of my identity, if even for a short while. And if I know anything in life, it’s that HP fans tend to turn it into a personality trait. Maybe that’ll be me.
I don’t really want to journal anymore. I feel sad and it doesn’t tend to help me perk up and I need to force myself into being chirpy and perky and all those sorts of adjectives so I don’t ruin his day. My baby.
I ordered dinner - tofu stirfry with roti yummm - so I’ll have that, maybe start HP3 and then have a shower and then spend time with my honeybunny. Night night

My deck has been established and fully blinged out for a while and the sheer amount of must play colorless cards in MH3 is exciting and sort of dreadful. I could seriously swap out 30+ cards to accommodate the new cards and new synergies with existing cards. I'll be reviewing all the new colorless cards in MH3 and the commander cards. For context, I'm tossing in reviews of the Commander Masters cards, which had some fun options for colorless, but comparatively irrelevant compared to the impact of MH3.
Note on playstyle: The reality of bringing Kozilek, Butcher of Truth to a table is it can become a game of archenemy. While too weak for cEDH, less competitive tables dread annihilator. Often it's a solitaire-style ramp, ramp, ramp until you win strategy, with minimal interaction. To build this deck for maximum efficiency, you often have to ask this question of each card. "Is this better than a mana rock?" You often cut titans and other big flashy spells to get in a 2 mana rock or an ur-golem's eye, just to make sure your ramp to Kozilek strategy keeps on track. So pre MH3, I ran Eldritch Moon Emrakul as the only other Eldrazi above 6 mana in my deck. (Probably taking that Emrakul out to try out new cards)
Pre-MH3 Decklist: (and Pre Outlaws, need to add Fomori Vault, Cactus Preserve, etc)
https://www.archidekt.com/decks/6404251/unlimited_budget_kozilek_butcher_of_truth
Tiers:
God - So incredibly powerful, it's difficult to imagine a day this isn't in my Kozilek decklist
Auto - Clearly makes the cut, but perhaps with steady power creep, will fall out of favor someday
Solid - Worth trying out, perhaps makes it long term, but it's easy to imagine swapping out.
Maybe - Might be fun to try, but doubtful to last long term unless some synergy makes it passable.
Doubtful - Starting to get really suspect to consider including this; probably messing with your deck's consistency/power.
Unplayable - Can't imagine justifying this card, unless some new synergy package makes it functional.
*Table below includes reviews of leaked MH3 commander cards; it's possible other colorless commander cards are still to be leaked/spoiled.\*

Card	Set	Tier	Function
Zhulodok, Void Gorger	Commander Masters	Maybe	Cascade, cascade is tempting value, but seems very win more. This has to stick around until you actually cast another big spell before this card has any impact on the game. Mana rocks seem better for our game plan
Rise of the Eldrazi	Commander Masters	Solid	It's hard to argue with the pure power of this spell and that you're a deck that could reasonably expect to cast it. Even then, you might wonder if you're better served playing a ramp card instead and increasing consistency casting Kozilek quickly. But it's certainly very tempting.
Darksteel Monolith	Commander Masters	Maybe	Can't be used to cast Kozilek, which is usually the payoff your ramp is leading up to. Still, it could be a very potent mana rock in a sense. Gets more powerful combined with Skittering Cicada/Liberator, Urza's Battlethopter for casting value on every turn.
Flayer of Loyalties	Commander Masters	Doubtful	If you're trying to lock an opponent out with annihilator, just run a haste enabler and cast your commander instead. If you're trying to outright kill with damage, it certainly has some potential for that, but colorless tends not to be a decks that trades blows back and forth and plays a fair game of magic. It's usually more ramp, ramp, ramp, you're dead.
Skittering Cicada	Commander Masters	Solid	Flash is really changes how the deck can play and this is one beefy creature all for 3 mana. But is it better than a mana rock and getting Kozilek out fastemore consistently? Possibly.
Omarthis, Ghostfire Initiate	Commander Masters	Unplayable	Weird and not what Kozilek decks are trying to do.
Desecrate Reality	Commander Masters	Solid	Colorless can use some interaction, hitting each opponent is nice, and potential to revive is cool, though I've noticed there's not a lot of cards I'm excited/expect to consistently be able to revive with this. (Dreamstone Hedron, Hedron Archive, etc. are artifacts you could plan to send to your graveyard, but they don't have odd CMC.)
Calamity of the Titans	Commander Masters	Doubtful	I generally dislike cards that do nothing if you don't have the right cards in hand. And fairly likely to do nothing when my deck leans more into Kozilek for being the finisher
Abstruse Archaic	Commander Masters	Doubtful	Decent body, decent ability. I might be underestimating, but seems kinda awkward. Would I rather have Sisay's Ring/Ur-Golem's?
Ugin's Mastery	Commander Masters	Unplayable	Again with manifest, not what Kozilek decks are trying to do.
Emrakul, the World Anew	Modern Horizons 3	Solid	Kozilek tends to not have much of a creature board state, so you risk less than other decks in casting this. And casting this for 6 mana is actually doable with this deck. Absolutely absurd. Though discard outlets are more restricted in colorless, Fomori Vault is a great new one, and Geier Reach Sanitarium is another decent land to accomplish this. Collector's Vault could be passable. Still runs into "is a mana rock better?" issue, but this is so much bang for your buck, seems worth it.
Kozilek, the Broken Reality	Modern Horizons 3	Solid	Seems wonky, but 9 mana seems like a nice surprise when opponents think you're one mana short to cast your titan and forcing your opponents to manifest and drawing 4 cards is nice. Draws you into more ramp. Still, is it better than a mana rock?
Ulamog, the Defiler	Modern Horizons 3	Solid	Exile half the library is certainly demoralizing and could shut down an opponent relying on tutoring up combo pieces. And if you can give him haste, the annihilator is much more brutal than even Kozilek. Seems unlikely to get the sequence, but if you can follow up with casting an Oblivion Sower, it's certainly cute. Is Ulamog better than a mana rock? Possibly.
Ugin's Labyrinth	Modern Horizons 3	God	I'm not over the moon about this card in this deck, because having a 7+ drop in hand is not a given, but the potential upside of immediately tapping for 2 is so powerful compared to the opportunity cost of running some other land.
Echoes of Eternity	Modern Horizons 3	God	It's so easy to ramp this out fast in colorless and double mana rocks, cast draw triggers, annihilator triggers… Annoyingly pushed card that's a no brainer.
Kozilek's Command	Modern Horizons 3	God	Colorless desperately needs interaction and this is an absolutely perfect card for colorless because it also easily passes the "would a mana rock be better?" test because it can also ramp if you need it to. It's a kindred instant, so benefits from Eldrazi Temple/Eye of Ugin. it can creates eldrazi spawn, it can replace itself with a card draw (and if you scry 10 or whatever, perhaps you're drawing a game winning combo piece), it can exile a creature token or something with higher CMC, it can mess with your opponents grave. Couldn't ask for more.
Glaring Fleshraker	Modern Horizons 3	God	In isolation, it's solid. it's sort of like reducing the cost of spells by 1/creating a treasure token per cast. That would be a fine card, but this goes insane with the right synergies. Goes infinite, burning opponents to death when combined with Mystic Forge/Sensei's Diving Top, cards that are great in isolation. If you cast Echoes of Eternity first, you get two copies of this, 4 spawn and 16 damage per subsequent spell cast. Not infinite, but game ending all the same.
Devourer of Destiny	Modern Horizons 3	Solid	Having this in opening hand should smooth out the cost of this being potential dead weight in your hand. (Not a mana rock) Something you can pitch to Ugin's Labyrinth. Not terrible, but not excellent as a top deck later in game.
Eldrazi Ravager	Modern Horizons 3	Solid	Cycling when needed, a super early annihilator threat. Some recursion possibility with eldrazi token generation… Could partially function as a sac outlet to sac Kozilek and recast for another draw 4.
Breaker of Creation	Modern Horizons 3	Maybe	Big life gain potential since it counts lands, hexproof, annihilator… Let's say you have lightning greaves out. I like the idea of an early threat to surprise an opponent who thinks you don't have enough to cast your annihilator commander only to get hit with this one. Still, might rather have a mana rock. Bane of Bala Ged is different, but might be better at that role anyway.
Null Elemental Blast	Modern Horizons 3	Auto	Only reason I didn't put this in God tier is because of the "Is it better than a mana rock" test. In some cases, you'd have been better advancing your plan (cast Kozilek) than messing with your opponents. But this is so incredibly efficient and can keep an opponent off his plan to buy you enough time to achieve your goals
It That Heralds The End	Modern Horizons 3	Maybe	As a cost reducer, it will probably only reduce the cost of at most one spell you cast each turn, unlike other reducers that will help you chain multiple spells each turn, like Ugin, the Ineffable, Cloud Key, Jhoira's Familiar… So it'll effectively produce up to 1 mana each turn. A 2 mana rock that taps for 1 might be better. The +1/+1 to the team is cool, but the deck usually doesn't go wide. Maybe alongside newest Kozilek, Glaring Fleshraker, Forsaken Monument?
Disruptor Flute	Modern Horizons 3	Maybe	Not the type of a card I like to include, but you could use it to keep an opponent off casting their commander.
Winter Moon	Modern Horizons 3	Doubtful	Always run Winter Orb above this, if you're going that route. (Since you're likely running all or mostly nonbasics, though you have the advantage of more mana rocks than opponents.) If your opponents play mostly non-basics, you could consider this too. So awkwardly, the more casual your play environment, the worse this card is.
Vexing Bauble	Modern Horizons 3	Maybe	Can disrupt certain strategies and be cycled away when needed, can be tutored with Urza's Saga… but you might just want to play another card? Seems meta dependent.
Idol of False Gods	Modern Horizons 3	Maybe	Benefits from Eldrazi Temple/Eye of Ugin, being a kindred artifact. Seems a little slow, if you're aiming for the second ability. But mana ramp, chump blockers… Not bad.
Urza's Cave	Modern Horizons 3	God	Tutoring lands is incredibly powerful in colorless. As a cave, can be tutored by Scampering Surveyor. Echoing Deeps can become a copy of this, which is notable.
Snow-Covered Wastes	Modern Horizons 3	Solid	Not really any snow payoffs in colorless to speak of yet. Scrying Sheets? There's basic land ramp that's decent, though I'm playing around with running no basics. Tough call. Wastes and Snow-Covered Wastes are two different land names for Monument to Perfection, for what that's worth.
Solar Transformer	Modern Horizons 3	Maybe	As a 2 mana rock that taps for 1, might be fine. Though since this enters tapped, you'd have to have an energy payoff for this to actually be worth it over running other 2 mana rocks.
Conversion Apparatus	MH3 Commander	Maybe	A 3 mana rock that taps for 1, that can store up energy to tap for 3 later? Seems a little clunky, comparing to Kyren Toy or Skyclave Relic. But if you had other energy synergy, maybe.
Stone Idol Generator	MH3 Commander	Unplayable	Not what this deck is trying to do, you're generally not going wide.
Horizon of Progress	MH3 Commander	God	Unbelievably good, I've contemplated running cards like Zoetic Cavern just for the possibility of land ramp, but this is repeatable. And can even cycle itself away. Can produce colorless. Urborg or Yavimaya can allow it to tap for mana without costing life.
Lazotep Quarry	MH3 Commander	Auto	Better than High Market, a card I already love? When needed, can sacrifice Kozilek to dodge problematic removal or sacrifice just to draw 4 more cards. Has desert synergy. Can even do graveyard recursion, perhaps bringing back a combo piece like Glaring Fleshraker.
Inversion Behemoth	MH3 Commander	Doubtful	Kills walls and illusions, I guess? Really fun design/stat line, but doesn't seem to advance the game plan the deck is aiming for.
Talon Gates of Madara	MH3 Commander	God	You can instant speed play this land (ramp) AND save a creature from removal/get rid of a blockeget rid of an attacker. That's insane. It's also a gate you can tutor with Maze's End/Navigation Orb. (also at instant speed for the bonus phase out effect)
Trenchpost	MH3 Commander	Maybe	Between Cloudpost, Glimmerpost, Planar Nexus, Vesuva, Thespian's Stage, Monument to Perfection and Expedition Map, does this get there? Seems a bit dubious, but not a huge opportunity cost for the potential for lands to produce more than one mana.
Planar Nexus	MH3 Commander	God	Tutorable with Maze's End, Navigation Orb, Scampering Surveyor, Monument to Perfection… Turns on urza tron, feeds Urza's workshop, cloudpost, Baldur's Gate (longshot), counts as a gate for heap gate, desert for a variety of effects…This card is the cornerstone of a new colorless land package, if you want to build around it.
Eldrazi Confluence	MH3 Commander	Auto	Surprise! I flash in enough mana to cast Kozilek. Or surprise! You didn't block Kozilek? My 21/3 kills you in one shot. It's flexible mana ramp/chump blockers/removal/other niche utility. Absolutely the kind of interaction this deck craves.
Selective Obliteration	MH3 Commander	Solid	Interesting, you'll never lose anything and at minimum destroys every multicolor card, so probably commanders. Though likely a lot of things will survive for each player. Seems solid, though awkward. Not a board wipe like all is dust, nor targeted removal.
Eldritch Immunity	MH3 Commander	Maybe	Great effect, though not exactly needed for this deck; Kozilek dying is usually fine and making my creatures unblockable is usually unnecessary to achieve a win. Still, could win you the game, especially if going wide.
Spawnbed Protector	MH3 Commander	Solid	7 CMC for Ugin's Labyrinth. The eldrazi to hand seems powerful, though getting Eldrazi in grave is not always possible. (Eldrazi Ravager with cycling works nicely) 2 Eldrazi Scion each end step is nice, so it is a mana rock of sorts. With Echoes of Eternity, you'd get two of these and 8 scions each end step.
Twins of Discord	MH3 Commander	Solid	7 CMC for Ugin's Labyrinth. If void winnower taught us anything, it's that shutting off blockers is better than you expect. And this lets you choose odd or even each combat phase, so you can adjust to whatever is on board. Though the eternal question; would I rather have a mana rock?
Ulamog's Dreadsire	MH3 Commander	Doubtful	Cute, but at 10 mana, I'd sooner go for a titan with immediate impact.

https://www.academia.edu/120201310
TB ñakte
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The use of ‘immortal’ in IE to refer to a ‘god’ can be seen in the comparison:
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*n-mrto- > Skt. amṛ́ta- ‘immortal’, Av. aməṣ̌a-, G. ámbrotos
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*n-nek^to- ‘immortal’ > *n^äktæ > TA ñkät, TB ñakte ‘god / lord’
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This requires only *n-n- > *n-, with no other examples. Later analogical forms with *n- before stems in *n- would not be odd (see on(u)waññe, below). This also fits into Toch. using *nek^- ‘die’ where other IE use *mer- ‘die’ :
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*mrto- ‘dead’ >> *n-mrto- ‘immortal’
*mrto- ‘dead’ >> *morto- > G. mortós \ brotós ‘mortal man’, Skt. márta-s
*mrti- ‘death’ >> *mortyo- ‘mortal’ > OP martiya- ‘man’
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*nek^to- ‘dead’ >> *n-nek^to- ‘immortal’
*nk^u- ‘death’ (OIr éc) >> *onk^wo- ‘mortal’ > *ænkwæ > TB enkwe ‘man’, TA onk
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Each part showing the same derivation ( >> *n-(e)-o vs. >> *-o-o- ) seems significant.
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TB on(u)waññe
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*n(a)H2wiyo- > Go. nawis ‘dead’, Li. novė ‘death’
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*nawnyo- > OIr naunae ‘hunger / famine’
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*en-nawnyo- > *Enawmyö > *ænwannyæ > TB on(u)waññe ‘immortal’
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*nawno- > *nawnæ > *nawmæ > *nwamæ > TA nwām ‘sick’
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If some words had dissimilation of *n-n > n-0, only 2 PIE words (*n(a)H2wniyo- & *n(a)H2wno-) might be needed as the bases, though it’s hard to tell. The change of wn > wm like n-W > m-W for *(H3?)nogWh- > Tocharian B mekwa ‘nails’, Tocharian A maku, TA nätsw- ‘starve’, TB mätsts- (likely from *n-(H)ed- ‘not eat’, later > *-w- in verbs), *negWhró- ‘kidney’ > *neghwró- > TA mukär. This shows that it was optional in both A and B, not a regular rule separating A from B. The presence of 2 n’s here might also have contributed (but before regular n-n > ñ-n, Whalen 2023b). Metathesis *nawmæ > *nwamæ might be to avoid *-wm- (maybe after *w > *v).
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TA onkrac
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*g^erH2ont- ‘aging’ > G. gérōn ‘old man’, Skt. járant-, Os. zærond ‘old’
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*g^erH2ont-yo- > Gaulish Gerontios, Arm. *ćeroynyo > ceruni ‘old person’
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*n-g^erH2ont-yo- > *ängẹṛxönttyö- > *Enkụṛöttyö- > *ænkwärættsæ > *onkwrottsæ > TA *onkroc > onkrac ‘immortal’, TB obl. onkrocce
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Adams has *onkroc > onkrac as regular, with other ex. of o-o > o-a in TA. He could not explain -o- in *onkwrottsæ, but if dissimilation of *n-n > n-0 occurred, a derivative of a participle in -ont- would make sense, with plenty of cognates. The seemingly odd change of *g^ > *kw has nothing to do with *g^, but with the following vowel. Dardic optionally changed V > ụ by retroflex sounds. This allows similar changes in Tocharian:
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*worHno- > Li. várna, R. voróna ‘crow’, *worHniH2 > *worxǝnyax > *woṛụnya > TB wrauña
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*k^erH2as- > G. kéras ‘horn’, *k^rH2as- > Skt. śíras- ‘head’, *k^rRas- > *k^ǝRas- > *k^ụṛas- > *kwäras- > TB *k(u)ras ‘skull’, kwrāṣe ‘skeleton’
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TB kwrai-ññe ‘made of clay’ < *kwärayye < *kụṛöyyö < *gǝl- < PIE *gloiyo-s; *klaiya-z > OE clǣg E. clay, G. gloiós ‘glutinous substance / gum / (adj) sticky / clammy’
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The same type might have caused KWǝC > KuC > Kw(ä)C (*KW > kW is not normal):
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*gWǝnáH2- ‘woman’ > G. gunḗ, Boe. bana
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*gWǝnH2-o:n > *kune:n > *kwän^e:n > *kwäl^e:n > *kwl^äye: > TA kwli, TB klīye \ klyīye \ klyiye ‘woman’
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*gWhen- ‘drive (away) / kill’ >> *gWhǝnontiH > *kun^öntya > *kwäñöñca > TA kuñaś ‘fight / combat’
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*negWhró- ‘kidney’ > G. nephrós, *negWhǝró- > *neghuró- > *mäghwärö > *mäwghrö > TA mukär
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​
The existence of so many *u from nothing requires some explanation, and this fits all data. Adams’ statement that words ending in syllabic *-r often analogically became u-stems (*H2ap-mr ? > *ampäru > TB amparw-a ‘limbs’) might instead show *-r > *-ǝrǝ > *-(ä)ru. More evidence of retroflex influence on V’s below.
​
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TB āntse
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*H2omso- ‘shoulder’ > Skt. áṃsa-s, Go. amsa-, G. ômos, L. umerus, *ansæ > TA es, TB āntse, H. anssa- ‘back of shoulders / upper back / hips / buttocks’
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Adams had *H4ōm(e)so- to explain PT *a-. This seems unneeded; since *en- / *än- > *En- > *æn-, original *on- probably became something other than expected *ön- > •æn- so as not to merge. There is no other ex. that would disprove regular *on- > *an- (or a similar change, depending on timing compared to *H- > 0-, etc.). G. ômos probably shows *omso- > *osmo- > *ohmo-. It is hard to be sure, since *-sm- does not seem regular in G. (*tweismo- > seismós ‘shaking’, *H1ois-mn- > oîma ‘rush / stormy attack’, *kosmo- > kómē ‘hair of the head’
​
G. dual amésō ‘shoulder-blades’ is probably Macedonian (o > a). It and L. umerus might show that *H2om(e)so- / *H2osmo- came from older *H2omos- / *H2omes-. The oldest meaning seems to be ‘back / spine / ridge’. These also greatly resemble Turkish omuz, etc.
​
​
TB kents
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Huard has several proposals for the origin of odd features in TB kents ‘goose’ which require changes based only on this word. I prefer changes known from several words, even if previously unseen. In this spirit, I say:
​

1. *-ns- > -nts-

​
If *g^hH2ans > kents, it would show unprecedented *-ns > -nts. Words for ‘goose’ from *g^hH2ans-, *g^hH2ansi-, & *g^hH2anso- are known, so avoiding this would require no new changes. Since *-ns- > -nts- in TB is clear, including after *i/u > ä/0 (G. kónis ‘dust’, *kóniso > *kænäsæ > TB kentse ‘rust?’; *snusó- ‘son’s wife’ > *sänsæ > TB santse) or after *ms > *ns (*H2omso- ‘shoulder’ > L. umerus, *ansæ > TA es, TB āntse). I say *g^hH2ansi-s > *kxantsis > *kentsä(s) > kents (maybe with dissimilation of s-s, if needed (the history of its stem is unknown)). *-is did not palatalize *s here. Adams explained non-palatalization in nom. like *kaH2uni-s > kauṃ (not *kauñ) as a specific change to *-is(-), as in *wi(H)so- ‘poison’ > *wäsö > TA wäs, TB wase (not *yase), Skt. viṣá-, G. īós. If RUKI causing retroflex was optional for PT *is > *iṣ, *-is > *-ịṣ > *-iš was the cause of non-palatalization. If retroflex C optionally caused V to become retroflex (Whalen 2024b), a stressed V by R might simply be made retroflex, with no change > *ụ like unstressed (above). Knowing the details when 2 stages could be optional is difficult. This would only be seen in the failure of palatalization before retroflex V :
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*gWerH2o- ‘praised / praiseworthy’ > Li. geras ‘good’, *gẹṛö > *kärö > TA kär, TB kare
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*gWerH2won- \ etc. ‘millstone / quern’ > Skt. grā́van-, *rgahan > Arm. erkan, Li. pl. gìrnos, Go. qairnus, *gẹṛwön-yö-? > TA kärwañ-, TB kärweñe ‘stone’
​
​

1. *xan-i > *xæn-i

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Huard gave other ex. of roots with *a forming nouns with *æ (as if < PIE *o) :
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*kH2an- > OIr canim ‘sing’, L. canere
*kH2ano- / *kH2ono- ? > *kænæ > TA kan ‘tune’, TB kene
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*H2anH1- ‘breathe’ > Skt. ániti \ ánati, TB anāsk-
*H2anH1o- / *H2onyo- / etc. ? > TB añiye ‘breath’, TA an
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If *g^hH2ansi-s > TB kents is included, Huard explanation of analogy would not be needed. All have the form of *(K)Han before a front V ( i/y or æ ). This only makes sense if a sound change was the cause. If H2 was x, it might be retained after k later than after other C’s. At a time when kx- > kx- but tx- > t-, etc., x- remained, o > ö > æ, a change of a > æ after x and before n()i/æ would work. With three examples, and no contrary evidence, it seems fairy certain.
​
​
Adams, Douglas Q. (1999) A Dictionary of Tocharian B
http://ieed.ullet.net/tochB.html
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Huard, Athanaric (2020) On Tocharian B kents* and the origin of PIE *ǵhans-
Wékwos. Revue d’étudesindo-européennes, 2020, 5, pp.215-262
https://hal.science/hal-03458885/document
​
Whalen, Sean (2023a) Tocharian A mukär 'kidney' -A Note on Identification
https://www.academia.edu/105473214
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Whalen, Sean (2023b) Dissimilation n-n > ñ-n & m-m > ñ-m in Tocharian
https://www.academia.edu/105497939
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Whalen, Sean (2024a) Notes on Tocharian Words, Loans, Shared Features, and Odd Sound Changes (Draft)
https://www.academia.edu/119100207
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Whalen, Sean (2024b) Tocharian *V > *u by Retroflex (Draft)
https://www.academia.edu/117296786
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Whalen, Sean (2024c) Greek *H and *h (from PIE *s) optionally changed near *o (Draft)
https://www.academia.edu/119795308
​

I ordered a hdd caddy for my computer and when I installed it, it detected my hard disk drive(HDD) and I used my computer for a good 20mins and after that my pc suddenly slowed down so when I tried to restart my pc it got stuck in the "restarting" blue loading screen so I hard reset my pc, when I tried turning it back on, it doesn't detect my hdd anymore and my files explorer just crashes everytime I right click on my drive E(which is my hdd that is on my caddy) take note that I have an ssd in my main drive and when I try to turn it back on, it won't and when I switch my boot drive to my ssd, it takes forever to boot up and it always do the "scanning and repairing drive C/E" and now my hdd is at 100% and my ssd is at 0%
https://preview.redd.it/pxqemdhpib3d1.png?width=494&format=png&auto=webp&s=f4cd424be1ab542b0c5ea183c72398d02e7664a8
https://preview.redd.it/tbx15cdqib3d1.png?width=493&format=png&auto=webp&s=c493c5cb317e4dd7bd4eb1442a12da0fb129d298

Hello!
I hope you're all doing well!
This is a fantastic event, and I had such a fun time writing about it. Although, I gotta say, a break is nice here and there, but getting back into the writing groove is tough lol, so if my writing is subpar here, expect it to be a bit better next week as my brain slowly switches back to writing mode!
(c) - Champ
D/DWCS - Debut/Dana Whites' Contender Series
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in division
x/3 - Confidence Levels
Lets go!
Prelims
Flyweight
Andre Lima (8-0-0, 8 FWS) v Mitch Raposo (D) (9-1-0, 4 FWS)
Striking: Despite the power of Raposo being a bit of a threat, I do think from a technical standpoint that Lima should be able to see a lot of the predictable attacks from Raposo coming, since Raposo’s best attack, which he uses very often, is his wide right during a two to three punch sequence, so as long as Lima avoids that and retaliates accordingly with his own boxing, we should be able to see Lima be the more effective striker.
Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t think either fighter wrestles when they fight, I mean, the footage I have seen from Raposo has mostly been him using his striking, and the same could very much be said about Lima. So, I call it a tie here, maybe?
Cardio: Lima is the one who is coming into this fight off a full camp in preparation for two other opponents who dropped out, and whilst a sudden change in opponent sucks because gameplans change, that cardio and conditioning work that has been done will still shine.
Prediction: Lima via KO R2 (1/3)
Women’s Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards (+210) (13-5-0, NS) v Ailin Perez (-265) (9-2-0, 2 FWS)
Striking: I mean, considering this fight is between a striker and a grappler, I have to give the striking advantage to Edwards here, she is the longer fighter, she does have the power and the technique to make this a little bit tricky for Perez to close in and get that takedown she very much needs, but I don’t exactly rate Edwards’ striking to be particularly high in any regard.
Wrestling/Grappling: This is Perez’ bread and butter, she uses her wrestling almost exclusively when she fights, and the moment she is in a very strong top position, that’s when you typically see her let her hands go and land some solid ground and pound.
Cardio: I have criticised Edwards’ cardio in my main write up, she is a 1.5 round fighter at best and I do think that if Perez is the one to execute her takedowns effectively and with vicious amounts of activity on top, we will only see that fatigue appear sooner. Perez probably has the default advantage also given her style is practically to wrestle, and you need to have a good gas tank to do all that.
Prediction: Perez via KO R3 (2/3)
Welterweight
Mickey Gall (+225) (7-5-0, 2 FLS) v Bassil Hafez (-290) (8-4-1, NS)
Striking: I mean, this is a contentious one because on one hand Hafez has the power advantage, he was wild but he made it gritty against JDM in his debut, but is wildness enough on the feet to deal with Gall who, despite being away for two years, could be coming back looking like a brand new fighter? I am leaning on Gall being the more effective striker here, but it’s a bit of an unclear one due to that time away.
Wrestling/Grappling: This is a clash between a good BJJ fighter in Gall and an excellent wrestler in Hafez… and since Gall has dreadful takedown defence, sitting pretty at 36%, I cannot help but think Hafez has the advantage here. There is a possibility that Gall, using his height and reach advantage, could lock in a guillotine submission as a counter to one of Hafez’s takedowns, so if you want to sprinkle something on Gall winning this one by submission, i wouldn’t blame you, but I think the wrestling output from Hafez is enough to nullify a lot of the submission threat, as long as that guillotine is not locked in tight.
Cardio: I know there is talk about Hafez having bad cardio when he fought JDM, but I think he was stylistically backed into a corner. His main style is wrestling yet he faced JDM on short notice, and I mean, JDM’s takedown defence is legit.
Prediction: Hafez via UD (1/3)
Welterweight
Niko Price (+210) (15-7-0, 2 FLS) v Alex Morono (-260) (24-9-0, NS)
Striking: This is an interesting one because both have their little tendencies… Morono is a bit unorthodox with the way he strikes, he has an awkward stance, he plods forward and his leg is often exposed which I can see Price attacking very often during this fight, but Morono’s quick one two is pretty fascinating to watch, it comes from a slightly higher angle, shoulder height instead of chest height almost, and that could make it hard for Price to get a read on things. It’s pretty even here to be honest.
Wrestling/Grappling: If we are talking about straight grappling, Morono has a massive advantage here, although we don’t normally see Morono control his opponent enough to wrestle them to the ground, so I think his grappling is situational for the most part, instead of an active style he uses, if that makes sense?
Cardio: Pretty even here to be honest, although Morono has shown to be fairly good in three round fights, fighting at a relatively high pace, although he does wilt from time to time, that could just be his style, conservation in the last rounds and such. Price has great cardio too, he has ridiculously good output but I just don’t know if that output is going to be there when that one-two from Morono is going to be a bit problematic. 50/50 here.
Prediction: Morono via UD (1/3)
Welterweight
Phil Rowe (+135) (10-4-0, NS) v Jake Matthews (-165) (19-7-0, NS)
Striking: Rowe has the clear reach advantage in this fight, he uses his reach well, using awesome straight one-two combinations and stance switches, but the thing that makes this most interesting is that Matthews has a boxing style of weaving into range, and it’s in the pocket where Rowe doesn’t strike as well as he normally does at range, and I just see Matthews landing his strongest punches from that pocket position, just off the weave and angle change. Both fighters have very, very good striking, but the one with the advantage depends on the position of the fighters.
Wrestling/Grappling: Matthews built his career off wrestling, he’s got a very strong wrestling base, and whilst he doesn’t use it as much as he should these days, it is still very much a skill that he could pull out and surprise Rowe with. Slight advantage goes to Matthews, and it’s only slight due to how little he wrestles these days.
Cardio: Man, both are really durable fighters who can take a fight to the distance and still look fresh, it’s a tough one to decide who is better, so it’s a tie here.
Prediction: Matthews via UD (1/3)
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (#15) (-320) (20-2-1, NS) v Joe Solecki (+250) (13-4-0, NS)
Striking: Dawson probably has the advantage here, but since both fighters have such a focus on wrestling and grappling, it’s a bit hard to be confident in saying that Dawson has the better striking. I do know that Solecki doesn’t strike that much, and Dawson has shown to have decent boxing, so there’s that at least.
Wrestling/Grappling: I like Solecki’s BJJ, he’s very, very good on the ground, but BJJ is only good if you can catch someone in a submission, its ineffective until it is effective and I don’t think Dawson is going to let Solecki set up Submissions without a lot of resistance. So, it’s a battle of wrestling versus grappling here in my opinion, and its pretty damn close, I still think Dawson is going to control Solecki for most of the fight, but Solecki could pull off a funky little sub off his back.
Cardio: I don’t think this one matters a whole lot here, Dawson usually thrives in long fights, he’s great at grinding out his opponents on the ground, and since he is probably going to be in top position for most of the fight, I do think he can wear Solecki down here. So, Dawson probably has the advantage here.
Prediction: Dawson via UD (2/3)
Middleweight
Roman Kopylov (-135) (12-3-0, NS) v Cesar Almeida (+115) (5-0-0, 5 FWS)
Striking: This is going to first and foremost be a fantastic stand up bout, Kopylov is insanely quick with his southpaw powerside attacks, his straight left is a danger to almost anyone, but the problem that I see him facing is the fact he tends to be too hittable at times, I mean, if Fremd can smack around Kopylov a bit, what can Almeida do? Almeida is a very high level kickboxer who has a brilliant left hook (as well as practically every other attack a kickboxer might use, including leg kicks), and I only highlight the left hook because Kopylov leaves that right hand a bit out from a proper shell position, so I can’t help but think that left hook is going to be a dangerous weapon for Kopylov to deal with. Almeida has the better striking here, only due to his credentials though.
Wrestling/Grappling: I mean, Kopylov is a multiple time Sambo champion, so I do think he has the ability to mix it up and make it interesting for Almeida, but Almeida himself has decent takedown defence and grappling defence, so it kind of almost negates each other, but still, the longer the fight takes place on the ground, the better it is for Kopylov here. Slight advantage to Kopylov.
Cardio: Tough one to decide, but Kopylov is pretty good at fighting in the second and third round, whereas Almeida might be good in the second or third, but there’s not quite enough fights to where I can say that comfortably. 50/50 here.
Prediction: Almeida via KO R2 (1/3)
Main Card
Welterweight
Randy Brown (-155) (18-5-0, 2 FWS) v Elizeu Zaleski (+130) (24-7-1, 1D/2FWS)
Striking: It’s a bit of a battle of range and power here, Brown has the reach advantage to glide on the outside and let his hands go a bit more comfortably, but he is also quite good at mixing in teeps and leg kicks, so he’s quite dynamic at range. Zaleski is very, very good at making this a gritty fight, if he can close the range he can certainly land cleanly against Brown because Browns best defence is his distance management, so Zaleski’s best chance at a clean punch is to enter the pocket and fire away. It’s a bit of a 50/50 but given the reach advantage of Brown I think he has the very slight advantage here.
Wrestling/Grappling: I know Brown doesn’t wrestle a lot, but it could really play into his favour in this fight, just to mix it up a bit. I haven’t exactly seen Zaleski look for takedowns a whole lot, he’s mostly a striker but quite adaptable on the ground, so the advantage here is also a 50/50 as its situational.
Cardio: I know that Zaleski is getting up there in age, but he still holds up well in distance fights. Brown has great cardio too and he’s good at maintaining a high pace of activity, especially at distance. My only concern is if he gets his legs chewed up by Zaleski’s kicks, that might seriously sap his tank a bit. Maybe a 50/50 here.
Prediction: Brown via UD (1/3)
Heavyweight
Jailton Almeida (#6) (-300) (20-3-0, NS) v Alexandr Romanov (#14) (+240) (17-2-0, NS)
Striking: Almeida probably has better striking than Romanov, but its only very slight since he focuses a lot on his wrestling pressure and grappling.
Wrestling/Grappling: I can go back and forth about this one for quite some time, but you’re here for the plain and simples, not the fluff, so to put it bluntly, Almeida has much better aggressive wrestling than Romanov has defensive wrestling (outwrestled by Espino), I believe that Almeida also has that BJJ that will help him control Romanov on the ground.
Cardio: Almeida has decent cardio, he might be a bit lay and pray-ish but he’s great at pressuring his opponent and sapping their cardio quicker than he saps his own cardio, so I got Almeida having the better gas tank here.
Prediction: Almeida via UD (1/3)
Middleweight
Kevin Holland (-250) (25-11-0, 2 FLS) v Michal Oleksiejczuk (+200) (19-7-0, NS)
Striking: Holland has a wide range of attacks that he uses, although he is mostly known for his sharp long boxing, and its that long striking which could be most problematic for Oleksiejczuk. Holland is also moving up to 185 again so we might see some more impactful shots since he will be less depleted during fight day.
Wrestling/Grappling: Holland used to be a grappler, he has quite a few submissions under his belt, and it is proven that Oleksiejczuk is not good at all on the ground, so if Holland was to wrestle in this fight, he would be the far superior grappler. I mean, most of Oleksiejczuks losses have been from submission, so it just makes sense to me that Holland would be a lot better than Oleksiejczuk on the ground.
Cardio: You cannot count out Hollands cardio here, the dudes a bundle of endless energy. He is built for durability, he took severe punishment when he fought Thompson and MVP and still stood tall and hung in there. That’s not just a show of “heart”, that’s a well conditioned fighter.
Prediction: Holland via KO R2 (2/3)
Co-Main Event
Middleweight
Sean Strickland (#2) (-205) (28-6-0, NS) v Paulo Costa (#8) (+170) (14-3-0, NS)
Striking: It’s a story of two styles here, Strickland has an excellent jab cross, his boxing fundamentals are his strongest assets as a striker, he doesn’t stray from the ordinary too much, everything is clean, maybe a bit repetitive, but that striking, alongside his forward pressure, has resulted in some slick victories on his behalf. Costa on the other hand is the exact opposite. Big movements, big actions, massive power, that’s Costa in a few words, he is chaotic and is able to disrupt the pattern of Strickland, and if he looks good enough to the judges despite the strikes being a bit ineffective, then he could very well get the nod.
Wrestling/Grappling: I don’t think i’ve ever seen Strickland wrestle. I mean, he trains out of Xtreme Couture so he certainly should have some wrestling under his belt, but he doesn’t exactly use it a lot. Same as Costa, Costa is mostly a striker so he tends to avoid a lot of grappling situations as much as possible. I don’t think either fighter has an advantage in grappling here.
Cardio: Strickland doesn’t look any different in the 5th than he does in the first, so I think Strickland has the far better cardio, and Costa tends to throw big attacks early which saps the gas tank a bit. So, Strickland has the better cardio here.
Prediction: Strickland via UD (1/3)
Main Event
Lightweight Championship Bout
Islam Makhachev (c) (-480) (25-1-0, 13 FWS) v Dustin Poirier (#5) (+360) (30-8-0, NS)
Striking: There is little doubt that when it comes to technique and timing, Poirier is at a ridiculously high level. He holds all the cards when the fight takes place on the feet, all he needs to contend with is the wild power and speed of Makhachev, but Makhachev mostly uses his power and speed to close the distance and raise the guard of his opponents, making those takedowns a bit easier. I cannot wait to see if Poirier lands that fight ending left or right hook.
Wrestling/Grappling: This is all Makhachev, and whilst you might argue that Poirier has great grappling, I think it’s a bit basic in comparison to Makhachevs, and if you know Makhachev, he prepares for the best his opponent can ever do, I think he trains to overestimate everything his opponent has to offer, so as soon as the fight hits the ground, expect Makhachev to thrive.
Cardio: Both have reasonably good cardio to be honest, but there’s something special about Makhachev, he is so full on and fights at such a nasty pace throughout all 3-5 rounds that his opponent can barely keep up with him… He only wilted once before, and that was against Volkanovski, late into the 5th round, in that very first fight, that’s stupendously impressive.
Prediction: Makhachev via Sub R2 (2/3)
Primary Parlay - Price/Morono o2.5 or GTD + Dawson/Solecki o2.5 or GTD + Almeida/Kopylov ITD + Makhachev/Poirier ITD
Secondary Parlay - Price/Morono o2.5 or GTD + Almeida/Romanov R3 Starts Yes + Strickland/Costa o2.5 + Makhachev/Poirier u3.5 or ITD
Locks: Perez (optional), Dawson, Almeida, Holland and Makhachev.
Alt Bets: Kopylov Points, Zaleski KO/Points, Costa KO/Points, Poirier KO R1 2 or 3 (combo rounds)
Prediction Accuracy for 2024: 64.3%
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Lets have a fun and friendly discussion down below about this weekends card!
I hope you all have an amazing day, look after yourselves, and enjoy this awesome event!

*this will be a long post heh*
SHINee just celebrated their 16th anniversary a few days ago and I was watching fancams of their concert and I just bawled like crazy. It made me so emotional watching them and I really wanted to write this post to share my journey with SHINee.
In 2011, my friend in middle school showed me this iconic music video and it was love at first sight. I was so obsessed with the guy in the all red outfit and that my friend was how I found my first bias at the ripe age of 14. I went all in with SHINee, I bought their first album on Amazon, The SHINee World, and I ripped the CD on iTunes and put the songs onto my iPod. And till this day I always go back to listen to Best Place, Romantic, One For Me because they are genuinely some of the best R&B tracks in all of Kpop. This is a great medley performance of their first album songs!
They were also the reason I got into Korean variety shows. From their iconic Hello Baby series to other funny variety appearances like this one. And their iconic SNL appearance where Minho's dibidibidis rap is made to life LOL
Also adding this popular clip where Jonghyun recreated their ramen commercial and he falls down and just watch the chaos that ensues after, Minho's laugh could be heard miles away I swear.
Because of their appearance on SNSD's Hello Baby I also got into SNSD right after as well. Throwback to when Key and Taemin were the fanboys of this VCR for SNSD's concert, it's so good lmao
I also will not let people forget about the iconic collabs that they had with their sister groups SNSD and f(x). They did Juliette with soshi here and Hello with f(x) here and this iconic one where Taemin kissed Krystal. Yes he really did that, 2nd gen wasn't playing with their stages.
But what was the main reason that I got into SHINee? It wasn't just because of Key's cute ass outfit in Hello but it was because the song was that f*cking good. It only takes one good song for me to get into a K-pop group and I can tell instantly if they're talented or not. So lemme get real into it, SHINee's discography.
They went on this show called The Muzit and did covers with a live band and I kid you not I watched this video like almost everyday back then. Key had that ridiculous Lucifer hair here but he killed the rap in I'll Be Missing You.
Everyone is always Ring Ding Dong this Ring Ding Dong that but what about my girl Jojo??? She is one of the best b-sides out there, ok just please listen to their vocals on this track, it still gives me chills till this day.
We all know noona neomu yeppeo but do we know the Japanese version where Yoona was the main girl and they had those crazy ass sneakers with wings on them and Taemin actually had more lines? No well here it is because she's a banger even in Japanese! While we're at it, let me introduce Kiss Kiss Kiss as well another great Japanese track by them.
The album that I really want to highlight is The Misconceptions of You Chapter 1 - Dream Girl. Why? Because they came out on stage spinning those mics like their lives depended on it. SHINee's back back, ok. Let me tell you why this album is a genius because in the first track Spoiler - Jonghyun included the name of every single song from Misconceptions of You Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 into this song. Yes he included the names of all 18 tracks in the song Spoiler. This song is pure genius because the intro literally sounds like Sherlock but then you're like wait what is going on, just listen to it. He literally gave us the spoiler by putting the spoilers inside a song called Spoiler.......Ok you thought I was done with this album, right? No I am not. They have a song on there called Sleepless Night and when I say their vocals will make you cry and give you goosebumps, this song is here to back up my point.
Other notable songs that I need to call out is Love Sick which pays a tribute to Replay both in lyrics and in CHOREO, when this came out I literally felt sick because I was gagged by how they are literally doing Replay's dance during the chorus.
I also need to put people on this beautiful b-side called Feel Good, literally put this song on and that is how you will feel. It's such a good track, and the 1 of 1 album was so SHINee and a perfect album.
After 2017, I did withdraw back a bit and it was much harder for me to follow SHINee the way I used to. But I always kept up with them and would check out their releases. From recent years I really wanted to point out the songs Countless, Kiss Kiss, Body Rhythm, Days and Years, and Sweet Misery.
I can't get too into the solo stuff because this post would go on forever but my favorites are as follow:
Onew - Love Phobia, Into The Whale, Caramel
Jonghyun - Hallelujah (omg this song drives me crazy), Moon, U & I
Key - Hate That, I Wanna Be, One of Those Nights
Taemin - Be Your Enemy, If I Could Tell You, this iconic Japanese song idk the English title
Minho - Heartbreak, Chase, Stay For A Night
Anyways SHINee has had an incredible career and they were such big pioneers in the K-pop industry. They captured my heart right away because they're such a genuine and hard-working group. Not only that but they have been with me through some of the hardest and loneliest years of my life. Whenever things were bad at home for me I would turn on their music or search up english subs to their variety shows or binge watch their concert fancams. Their music and presence gave me so much hope. I was never alone because I got to cry and laugh with SHINee while growing up. It was evident from early on that this group loves each other so much.
I was able to write this long post because of all the years of heartfelt memories I shared with them. I have all of these specific moments, songs, and performances deep in my mind. Somewhere in the corner of my heart, SHINee will always be there, just like how I have a mini encyclopedia page for them in my brain.
They're the reason I got into K-pop 13 years ago. I might not follow them as much and they might not be my ult group anymore but they'll always be my first love in K-pop. And we never forget our first love. I wish nothing but the best for SHINee and I will continue to support them wherever I am. I truly wish them the best anniversary this year. Happy belated birthday SHINee <3 OT5 FOREVER <3
I hope that newer fans can also appreciate the legends that they are.
And my last song recommendations are A-yo, Up & Down, Ready or Not. Their 2nd full album is kinda crazy, but in the best best way. And watch the Hello music video, I promise it will put a smile on your face.

Hey Everyone!
Let’s go….
Newly Covered Today:

1. Sorry, Dragon. A senator from the least populated state in the union just deeply wounded your entire agenda in one day. https://x.com/ArmySpies/status/1791572836076921128
2. Very interesting! Fallout from the Dragon's failure in the Senate vote? https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1792636523050906102
3. Wow! Is this shit actually happening? If it is, we have the Senate SAB 121 beatdown to thank for this HUGE shift in policy. https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1792656860379844875
4. The anti-crypto betas might be trying to strike back with opposition to Fit 21. https://x.com/lex_node/status/1792677933557146103
5. Looks like the message is only "strong opposition" as opposed to "don't you dare vote for this crypto bullshit". https://x.com/Eleanor_Muellestatus/1792701481575170341
6. The US state government rush to crypto has begun. https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1790395762506977502
7. This is what we wanna see: states competing to host us. https://x.com/SenLummis/status/1791112039982653550
8. Don't know anything about the project, but this is a pretty decent sized raise. https://x.com/splashprotocol/status/1791862205215801800
9. A huge thank you is due to Lummis and Gillibrand for pushing so hard for crypto in the Senate. https://x.com/SenLummis/status/1791146216522240118
10. McHenry on pushing Fit21 crypto legislation forward. https://twitter.com/PatrickMcHenry/status/1789017167821778946
11. The DOJ is talking about "MEV" and "fraud" in this indictment. Shocked I tell you! Shocked! https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1790777058810789900
12. Schumer knows they're at a pivotal moment vs. Warren and the White House. https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1790736453669949646
13. Senate Dems are trying to find a fix for the White House being. Having to veto the will of your own party's senators wouldn't be a good look in an election year. https://twitter.com/taylorjbarstatus/1790724374405828664
14. Which one of you was this? https://x.com/ArmySpies/status/1791915321529671965
15. Why Cardano? Because: https://twitter.com/josephdelong/status/1790862858244206942
16. Ahhhh...as it should be. https://twitter.com/StakeWithPride/status/1790857991488782351
17. The English translation of what's coming out of the Dutch Tornado Cash case is brutal. https://twitter.com/BillHughesDC/status/1790438032098631990
18. Paul Ryan is talking about stablecoins as a solution to help treasury auctions? https://twitter.com/nic__cartestatus/1790540747466223921
19. Epic community note about TPS in blockchains. https://x.com/coingecko/status/1791406157468504289
20. Apparently, Cardano's biggest competitor is inflationary again. https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/05/09/eth-reverts-to-inflationary-asset-following-fee-reducing-dencun-upgrade/
21. Mr. T pities the fools in banking who are gonna get wrecked by Commercial Real Estate. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1790832468767220113
22. Nothing to see here! https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1789402248293818573
23. It's easy to forget there are only a few "decentralized" blockchains bigger than Cardano. https://twitter.com/Av_Sebastian/status/1789016340755276228
24. Development on Kraken's SEC battle. https://twitter.com/msantoriESQ/status/1788944762608754731
25. Thank you non-octogenarian members of Congress. No surprise to see our crypto ally Torres in there. https://twitter.com/SamLyman33/status/1788612636428374183
26. White House threatens veto of House Bill repealing SAB121. https://twitter.com/EleanorTerrett/status/1788279283229904976
27. The White House is wild for doing this in an election year. https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1788281811086221646
28. Why is it happening? Because the White House economic staff is answering to the Dragon, not the guy who needs to win re-election as President. https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/178827894030354890
29. McHenry on SAB121. https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=409247
30. House bill to repeal SAB121 passes with the support of 21 Democrats even after the White House veto threat. This is huge. Now on to the Senate. https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1788328626250813657
31. Doom on Hydra! https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1788292907679514677
32. Dragon also taking heat on her reaction to the FDIC scandal. https://twitter.com/nic__cartestatus/1788284368009437571
33. People are still massively sleeping on typescript in the ecosystem, totally separate from the addition of regulatorily compliant privacy. https://twitter.com/MidnightNtwrk/status/1787784475499208773
34. Grewal getting spicy in his retort to Gensler double talk. https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1787852258572661214
35. Lubin on the SEC crackdown and MetaMask Wells Notice. https://www.wired.com/story/ethereums-co-founder-says-sec-is-gaslighting-us-about-crypto/
36. Robinhood received a Wells Notice. They're definitely trying to cover all the big on-ramps. https://twitter.com/CoinDesk/status/1787468580902088795
37. Politico article on the SeC and crypto. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/05/gary-gensler-sec-crypto-00154769
38. Druckenmiller on how easy this could have been. https://twitter.com/BillHughesDC/status/1787887702538420598
39. Fairly accurate. https://twitter.com/CryptoWendyO/status/1787847385328275514
40. Did someone say airdrop? Wait…what about the tokenomics? https://twitter.com/MladenLm/status/1787524932689174796
41. Why Haskell? Ask Anduril. https://twitter.com/TravisMWhitakestatus/1787516740961964338
42. The dirty little secret of Cardano’s main competitors? https://twitter.com/decryptmedia/status/1787513483606536560
43. The first treasury buy-back since 2002?!? So the treasuries are removed in exchange for more fiat being issued into the ecosystem. Definitely doesn’t sound like the start of things that look like QE under a new name. https://twitter.com/martypartymusic/status/1785681525746663925
44. Look at the difference 150 bps makes. https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1786510472214462967
45. What Biden’s guy wishes he said (of course with the nuance that actual physical printing…not what we’re worried about here…is done by Bureau of Engraving & Printing of Treasury). https://twitter.com/theSamPadilla/status/1786439794605572245
46. Set “Apply Thresholding” to “None” to see the real numbers. https://groups.inf.ed.ac.uk/blockchainlab/edi-dashboard/
47. Not gonna lie. This is pretty fire from Sen. Lummis. https://twitter.com/SenLummis/status/1786055913922494838
48. Three different non-BTC crypto ETFs are now listed on Hong Kong. Progress! https://www.theblock.co/post/291599/hong-kong-officially-debuts-asias-first-spot-bitcoin-ether-etfs
49. Grayscale is basically the worst ex ever. Getting our stuff out of their place has been painful and seems to never end. https://dailyhodl.com/2024/04/30/crypto-markets-break-down-as-grayscale-sends-over-245000000-worth-of-bitcoin-to-coinbase/
50. Consensys has sued the SEC seeking clarity around Ethereum and securities laws. https://twitter.com/BillHughesDC/status/1783561618741236177
51. Biden: Long-term capital gains to 44.6% + unrealized gains tax! Crypto: No thanks. https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1783028521549299932
52. Damn…they want CZ to get three years! https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1783028521549299932
53. Pragma: a new Cardano members based organization! Initial focus to be on Aiken and Amaru (a second client for Cardano…which we need). https://twitter.com/IOHK_Charles/status/1782828212273443063
54. I think we all knew this was coming at some point for Tron. https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-59
55. The SEC attorneys who were on Debt Box have exited the SEC. https://twitter.com/leomschwartz/status/1782470866766340300
56. Kennedy is talking about putting the US Government budget on the blockchain. Dude may be predicting the future. But, how far out is it? https://twitter.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1782240403879576041
57. We made it! Halving complete
58. Damn! Kennedy is embracing the ChazHosk endorsement! https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJstatus/1780726997020508562
59. So close, but yet so far! https://twitter.com/GaryGenslestatus/1780685461020663888
60. Once again, we are the best blockchain. https://twitter.com/StakeWithPride/status/1780711598375809162
61. Hong Kong ETFs, you say?!? https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/04/15/shock-leak-reveals-china-could-be-about-to-blow-up-the-price-of-bitcoin-ethereum-and-xrp/
62. As predicted when the investigation was revealed and Uniswap Labs took synthetics off their front end, the SEC has dropped a Wells Notice on Uniswap. https://twitter.com/Uniswap/status/1778127813138071904
63. A full suit against Uniswap is only a matter of time given the current composition of the Gensler led Commission. https://twitter.com/BillHughesDC/status/1778146519125774761
64. The founder of Uniswap on their willingness to fight the upcoming battle with the SEC. https://twitter.com/haydenzadams/status/1778126466984575166
65. It's definitely a little crazy given the recent ruling on Coinbase Wallet not being a broker. But, this is the result of an agenda, not fair and impartial treatment. https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1778149863072670169
66. Ouch! Hotter than expected CPI for April. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/10/economy/cpi-consumer-price-index-inflation-march/index.html
67. So-called "super core" inflation (no shelter, energy, or food costs) is even hotter. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/the-supercore-inflation-measure-shows-fed-may-have-a-real-problem-on-its-hands.html
68. Cardano's biggest competitor can't even decide what its issuance rate should be. https://unchainedcrypto.com/why-the-ethereum-community-is-up-in-arms-against-a-proposal-to-change-the-monetary-policy/
69. People are sleeping so hard on how much demographics are going to affect economies over the next few decades. Wild decisions will be made in attempts to remedy these problems. https://twitter.com/iamyesyouareno/status/1775535726383222928
70. Even Chairman Ryan sees the severity of the problem. https://twitter.com/SmokeAwayyy/status/1787925300757807226
71. This shows all the biggest depopulation trends. https://twitter.com/stats_feed/status/1786482160272118041
72. Operation Chokepoint 2.0 continues, apparently! https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1775982855169995246
73. Weird that it hurts so little when you know they're on the descent. https://twitter.com/Grayscale/status/1775983039832904014
74. No private liability for secondary trading on exchanges. https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1776292735063888374
75. No matter how much people will obsess over various wild-niche-bullshit things, the real story over this cycle will (as always) just be this: https://twitter.com/cardano_whale/status/1776229889743728657

Previously covered, but still interesting:

1. Not to worry: the on/off function of a large Cardano competitor is still functioning as usual. https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1754828269180903727
2. Oh...so bitcoin mining is an emergency now....okay. Makes perfect sense. https://twitter.com/BitcoinPierre/status/1752842700548718644
3. ..and as expected, their reaction is censorship. https://twitter.com/StakeWithPride/status/1764316770398289996
4. Pretty much what happened. https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1762238298008006931
5. Watching Deaton challenge for the Dragon's seat is going to be some incredible fun. https://twitter.com/DeatonforSenate/status/1759935884978225340
6. Definitely no bias built into Big Tech AI! These MFers can't be trusted. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1761800684272308302
7. This one could end up addressing some interesting questions around government intervention in...basically just computation. https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1761112782253240810
8. 2020: "Binance is unstoppable." 2024: https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1761115366275596526
9. Very telling that it's just becoming clear to them that "crypto is here to stay". https://bitcoinist.com/sec-leader-resigns-stating-crypto-is-here-to-stay/
10. Maybe..crypto is just dreaming. But, it would send a shockwave through DC if Deaton won! https://twitter.com/Belisarius2020/status/1760499141296427405
11. Arthur Hayes with the unabashed Cardano hate. Why? Because it's valued??? https://twitter.com/CryptoHayes/status/1760055332364292219
12. Yep. The KYCing of self-custodied wallets is upon us. https://news.bitcoin.com/kraken-starts-requiring-info-on-self-custody-crypto-wallet-ownership-in-the-uk/
13. Still ranked crazy high in the brand intimacy rankings. https://twitter.com/CloverNodes/status/1769136178924769358
14. What do we have here? https://pool.pm/asset12ffdj8kk2w485sr7a5ekmjjdyecz8ps2cm5ze
15. We haven't seen this before. https://twitter.com/sachs_johnny/status/1768281470005588162
16. The crystal ball not looking good for an ETH ETF approval in May. https://twitter.com/jchervinsky/status/1767175990285857006
17. At least one candidate is with us. https://twitter.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1767344261081489793
18. The Dubai police are using the Cardano blockchain? https://twitter.com/ZombieLife2019/status/1766753115632480539
19. The truth will out...https://twitter.com/CCMOD_/status/1764379842911330776
20. Vechain is posting about Cardano and Charles. https://twitter.com/vechainofficial/status/1765014603220586706
21. We're still doing this CFTC vs. SEC thing? https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-designated-as-commodity-by-cftc/
22. Welcome to the show of magic, mystery, and sorcery where I, the GREAT VALDINO, will turn Ethereum into Cardano before your very eyes! https://twitter.com/StakeWithPride/status/1771180467745669407
23. And then the ETH Foundation warrant canary vanished. Interesting move in an election year. They really don't put any respeck on the name of our voting power. https://unchainedcrypto.com/sec-investigating-ethereum-foundation-regarding-proof-of-stake-transition-report/
24. Unsurprisingly, a16z seems to disagree with any assertion by the SEC that ETH (in it's new proof-of-stake form) is a security. https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-not-security-sec-probe-a16z/
25. 2024 is not going well for SEC litigation. https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1769835308559032608
26. Oh okay...Japanese stagflation after 17 years of lowezero/negative interest rates. Yeah, sounds like everything's fine. https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/1769703427586605549

~Army of Spies

BoxOfficeTheory Presale Tracking
USA Showtimes As of May 17

• katnisscinnaplex showtimes (I've been meaning to look at shows since I wasn't able to run it last week. It looks like all of the releases this week are fairly limited. Here's what I am seeing listed so far, which is probably ~90% of final (I think...I don't usually run on Wednesday): In a Violent Nature - 440 TC (plus ~200 early shows), Summer Camp - 653 TC, Ezra - 617 TC and Haikyu - 816 TC (May 28).)

Presales Data (Google Sheets Link)
BoxOfficeReport Previews
DOMESTIC PRESALES
Haikyu!! The Dumpster Battle Average THU Comp: $0.91M

• abracadabra1998 ($1.00M THU comp. No movement, probs looking at around $1 Million previews (May 28). Not bad, not bad (May 27).)
  
• Flip (Looking at some theaters near me, Haikyu is outselling Spy x Family (May 20).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex ($0.81M THU comp.)
  
• Rorschach (These numbers seem pretty damn good. Will echo @abracadabra1998's $1 mil previews prediction (May 28).)
  

In a Violent Nature

• el sid (Had also only showtimes in 4 of the 7 theaters but already 123 sold tickets. So where it gets shows, it does fine. Loose comps, all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday: Tarot (715k from previews) had 97 sold tickets in 5 theaters, The Invitation (775k from previews) had 96 in 7 theaters, Pearl (1.3M OD) had 102 sold tickets in 6 theaters and The Strangers: Chapter One (1.2M from previews) had 215 sold tickets in 6 theaters (May 28).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex ($0.57M EA+THU comp.)
  
• Rorschach ($0.91M THU+FRI comp.
  

Summer Camp

• el sid (Has shows in 3 of my 7 theaters and had not more than 7 sold tickets. So so far completely under the radar. Comp: Book Club 2 (6.7M OW) had also on Monday for Thursday 25 sold tickets in 5 theaters (May 28).)

Young Woman and the Sea

• JonathanMB (I just checked showtimes near me, and in the entire Chicago suburbs it looks like it's only in 5-7 theaters for Friday. Also randomly enough it has a couple of showtimes today at 3pm at some random AMCs? Looks like they're 30-50% full (May 27).)

Bad Boys: Ride or Die Average Thursday / EA+Thursday comp: $3.47M/$5.34M

• abracadabra1998 (Comp: $2.61M THU. All these comps had been on sale for longer, so those will go up, with the exception of Civil War, which went on sale at T-18 so that'll go down. Feels like a walk-up movie so it's hard to find good comps (May 19). Numbers are from last THU, as per my post this morning. This is a more walk-up movie a la Aquaman or Apes so I think it's a pretty good start (May 18). Pretty good start for it honestly (May 16).)
  
• el sid (Counted yesterday for Thursday had 395 sold tickets with shows in 6 theaters (the small AMC Lakeline in Texas is still missing). 10 days left. Bad Boys for Life (6.36M from previews) had on Monday of the release week 915 sold tickets = 43% at the moment for Bad Boys 4 with 7 days left to come closer or maybe overtake. My guess is that BB4 could have 800-1000k tickets by next Monday, so it could be pretty much on par with BBfL. Similar to other reports here: BB4 does not have stellar presales and after several disappointments I shouldn't exaggerate but compared to the best comps it looks quite good for BB4 as you can see (May 28).)
  
• Flip (Decided to add one more theater but there was good growth in both of the original two (May 27).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex (Comp: $5.34M EA+THU.)
  
• keysersoze123 (Presales are again not that much at this point. I think its not going to hit the heights of last movie (May 28). It should start to amp up sometime this week (May 27). This wont be fan driven. Even the last one initially trailed Dr Do little in presales but amped up big time close to release. This will be a late bloomer. I am still expecting 50m+ OW (May 23).)
  
• TheFlatLannister (Comp: $5.11M THU. Steady pace, no acceleration yet. Switch to G x K since that had super strong walkups ($6.12M THU comp) and Bad Boys 4 will likely replicate this (May 27). Comps ($4.11M) would mean $40M+ Opening Weekend (May 24). Well, this is a pretty good start (May 17).)
  
• TwoMisfits (Aging male-skewing franchises tend to get the biggest bump from this deal. Folks are on the fence but know what they are getting. Female skewing non-sequel ones tend to get zero help. You need baseline interest to get people willing to pay anything, b/c these still are $5. The other effect of the deal is that movies releasing around the $5 hits sometimes get hurt. June TMobile $5 Atom movie. This could help it go huge, like last year's Spider-Verse (May 22).)
  
• vafrow (Comp: $2.7M THU. It's staying pretty flat (May 28). Zero sales day when all comps seemed to have done well. Not a great result. Note: This isn't a holiday weekend in Canada, so that doesn't explain the slow sales. Hopefully it's just an anomaly. This has been very steady to date (May 27). Ghostbusters and Apes both went up in comps, but I didn't have Hunger Games included, so it's brought the average down. Still, its growing at a steady pace (May 26). I still expect this to be more walk up friendly than the comps being used, and should see a gradual rise as the date gets closer (May 25). Nothing of note here. Staying steady. Will probably pick up only in the final week (May 20). Comps are not the greatest. One, surprisingly hard to find a comparable film with similar start on sales. Plus, I think ticket buying patterns have changed pretty drastically in my market over the last few months. Very little up front sales compared to late 2023. Dune was the exception (May 17).)
  
• YM! (Like IO2 the pace for Bad Boys is small but mighty. EA is only available at Majestic much like Garfield. With EA, it’s a few tickets shy of Furiosa’s T-6 but without them it’s only a bit over half. Either way both is really good. I think we’ll continue to see the gap grow over the week but as of rn, I am thinking around $6-7m previews without EA solely on vibes to an OW north of $55m (May 25). Same thing as IO2 for Bad Boys (see May 23 IO2 comment), I expect this to not only skew more GA friendly and should bulk up ticket sales as we get closer to release. It’s almost at half of Furiosa’s T-6 which is a pretty great thing. Should easily outdo it by T-6 imho (May 23). Again, another solid start-ish. I expect Bad Boys to have the most diverse audience. Can't really predict much on previews but I am feeling confident in the 55-60m OW range for the past few weeks (May 17).)
  

The Watchers Average Thursday Comp: $1.00M

• filmlover (Hasn't sold anything near me (May 26).)
  
• Flip (These are good numbers considering it’s only playing in 2/3 theaters I track (May 28).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex ($1.00M THU Comp.)
  

The Lord of the Rings Extended Edition Re-Releases (June 8-10)

• BoxOfficePro (Fathom Events has also announced that select Regal Cinemas will present the films in 4DX on June 22/23/24 for Fellowship/Towers/Return respectively (May 14).)
  
• AnthonyJPHer (Fellowship of the Ring (269 tickets, 6 showtimes, 4 theaters) on Saturday, June 8, 2024 and Saturday, June 15, 2024 (21 tickets, 4 showings, 4 theaters). The Two Towers (243 tickets, 4 theaters) Saturday, June 9, 2024 and Saturday, June 16, 2024 (22 tickets, 4 showings, 4 theaters). Return of the King (281 tickets, 4 theaters) for Saturday, June 10, 2024 and Saturday, June 17, 2024 (16 tickets, 4 showings, 4 theaters). 852 tickets sold in total. 793 tickets sold for the first week. 59 tickets sold for the second week (May 28).)
  
• katnisscinnaplex (Up to ~1,400 shows now with new locations picking it up and others adding a second showing. LotR1 has sold 831 seats OD, LotR2 sold 715 seats OD, and LotR3 sold 735 seats OD. For comparison, Phantom Menace didn't break 800 tickets until T-3 and we're still over a month out. JW3 comp is currently around 9m (it was at 1,670 tickets sold at this point!) (May 6).)
  

Inside Out 2 Average Thursday Comp: $7.63M

• abracadabra1998 (Comp: $3.98M THU. Good update, hopefully this keeps on rising (May 23). Not impressed at all so far here sadly (May 19). Holy numbers of shows and seats! Multiplexes are really expecting a lot here. Sales off the bat not amazing here (May 15).)
  
• AniNate (Finally a little movement here. 23 Thursday, 52 Fri-Sun (compared to 18 THU and 23 FRI-SUN on May 17) (May 22). Safe to say the fan rush has ended, and it might not be immediately on casual family and radar when they're making memorial Day plans and there are two other kids movies out or about to be out (May 19).It is encouraging that Canton is already giving me something to work with with 12 THU preview sales. Same number for Fri-Sun. I do see nine sales for first THU at Canton now and I think that's a pretty solid start (May 15).)
  
• AnthonyJPHer (Some growth for THU, not bad but I expect sales to increase steadily as we get closer to release day. The presales are good enough to not be a disaster like Garfield, but not big enough to guarantee a 100m opening. I still like what I’m seeing though. As my local theater has finally shown some signs of life with this film. 5 tickets sold. Way better than Garfield at the same point. The numbers might not be completely accurate, but it’s looking extremely strong for Friday. 900 tickets for the five theaters I track. Maybe even 1,286 tickets if my numbers are accurate. That tells me this is not front loaded whatsoever. Or at the very least not preview heavy (May 27). Out of the 4 tracked theaters, there is at least 774 tickets sold out of 1000+ seats. Blown Garfield out of the water (~200 tickets from the theaters I tracked). At least 3 sold out (or close to sold out) showings for Inside Out 2. Looking good for Inside Out 2. Of course this might just be fan surge and all. I was looking at the THU previews in a theater near me. There is an almost completely sold out showing. Out of 195 seats, 175 were sold. Where I live there seems to be real interest. I counted about more than 400 tickets sold on THU for theaters near me, kind of shocked me (May 19).)
  
• charlie Jatinder (Comp: $12.33M THU at MTC2. Moving along nicely (May 21).)
  
• Flip (Decided to add one more theater but there was good growth in both of the original two (May 27). Fan event on the 16th has 43 tickets sold from 2 showtimes (compared to 8 showtimes and 73 tickets sold for previews), so that might be depressing previews a bit.)
  
• katnisscinnaplex (Comp: $6.37M THU. Early sales haven't been there lately except for the extreme fans. $12.27M Mario comp (May 18). At 180 shows for previews in my areas and still has a few theaters left to post. Godzilla x Kong finished with 197, Kingdom of Apes 190, and Kung Fu Panda 205 (May 14).)
  
• keysersoze123 (If you compare this to any animation movies seen recently including Minions, its doing very well. Really good this far out for sure (May 25). Chugging along at this point (May 19). Show counts show Plexes are expecting a big OW. I dont remember when we last had a animation movie start with so many shows. I wont count Mario as that was a fan driven movie. Definitely not great presales but this is not a fan driven movie. Let us see where things are in the final week (May 15). Families dont book tickets on weekday mornings. Wait until evening today to judge it. From a release perspective, easily the biggest for any animated movie in a long time. Only movie which is not comparable is Mario but that was not just a family flick (May 14).)
  
• Porthos (BAD COMPS: $8.96M THU. I don't agree with the undertone of concern when it comes to ticket sales for IO2. They seem perfectly fine to me, maybe even somewhat strong. It just isn't selling like a frontloaded CBM/fan driven franchise (even when adjusting for animation). So I suppose it really comes down to how much we think this will still act like a traditional kids animation film when it comes to buying pattern, how much demand has been burnt off, and how many people are still going to buy tickets but see no particular need to buy them early. Which I suppose really can't be answered until we get close to the time when kids animation films typically accelerate. But, I keep looking at the sales in Sacramento and not seeing much cause for concern. Yet, at any rate (May 25). Decided to add Nope ($12.62M) to the comp block. Not because I think it's a particularly good one (the ATP differences alone are a major red flag), but more for pace considerations considering how similar horror and kids animation are when it comes to being backloaded. The other consideration with Nope is that it was on sale for nearly two weeks longer, so it did have a small amount of extra time to pad some seats sold. But maybe the errors (ATP vs length of pre-sale) will cancel each other out. PROBABLY NOT! But the pace at the very least should be interesting (May 25). 10.0% Matinee sales, 5.3% 3D sales and 42.2% PLF sales. (May 19). Strange pre-sale pattern. Was there some sort of promo that dropped today? Either way, just a great day (for this type of movie at this point in pre-sales) (May 17). Fairly strong day. Was concentrated at a couple of theaters (May 16). I do not have good comps, especially for D1. 5.45946x Elemental on D1 [13.10m]. Will it be as backloaded as Elemental? It's tough to sell 5.5x times the amount of tickets on the final couple of days, so perhaps not. But it does show how backloaded purely kids animation is. Sonic 2 comp is perhaps a little concerning. On the other hand, nearly a weeks more of pre-sales. Of presales, 3.5% are 3D and 40.1% are PLF (May 15). On the SAT of release weekend (NOT EA) there is a special event screening for IO2: INSIDE OUT 2: FUNKO FAMILY EVENT! (2024) Sat June 15th. Might boost OW slightly depending on how wide this event is and how much more these tickets will presumably cost (May 11).)
  
• TheFlatLannister (Comp: $8.52M THU Florida and $7.57M THU Orlando Comp.)Excellent pace this far out. Does feel like something big is around the corner (May 27). Definitely the biggest rollout in showings since I've started tracking Florida. Bigger than even Dune 2 and it's only T-26 (May 18). This is a super super strong day 2. Probably just Orlando overindexing, but yeah starting to lean towards something big brewing. Florida presales are somehow even crazier. Sold 2357 seats and is getting a blockbuster rollout in terms of showing allocations. Kung Fu panda comp day 2: gives me $8.50M (May 15). Well, I can't really tell if this is a breakout or not yet. Looks very good especially in the first few hours. These are probably terrible comps, but might as well try something (May 14).)
  
• TwoMisfits (I'm kinda shocked at the opening set from my Cinemarks... 2 screens (1 PLF, 1 not) and 6 showings at my PLF 14 for THU (and 11 showings on the same screens once it runs full day - 7 PLF b/c 1 is 3d on the reg screen, 4 not)... 3 screens (.75 3d, 2.25 not) and 9 showings at the non-PLF 12 for THU (and 12 showings on 2.25 screens once it runs full day)... So, 2 and 2.25 screens for the weekend presale sets... Disney must be charging a huge % for themselves b/c this is an Elemental opening set at my PLF...a little more generous for THU at my non-PLF, but then they too drop to an Elemental opening set after the adult Disney base THU rush... (May 14).)
  
• vafrow (Comp: $5.6M THU. It's starting to grow (May 25). I'm surprised this hasn't been stronger. At this stage, I don't expect we'll see much activity until final week (May 19). No new sales. Whatever glitches in the system on day 1 didn't push sales to day 2. I still think the lack of base ticket options will push families to wait. Cineplex has jacked up the cost of PLFs, plus they're throwing in an increase for opening weekend of major releases. It adds up quickly for families (May 16). With the site glitching yesterday, it might account for the slow start. But, what's interesting is the format breakdown. Nothing is being made available in anything close to a regular showtime. The one non 3D showing in Dolby is a matinee showing. Everything else is carrying a hefty premium. They'll likely release regular showtimes closer to release, but right now, it's priced to get eager fans to pay the PLFs (May 15).)
  
• YM! (Did a bit of quick math in following some comparisons for IO2 using Keysersoze123's earlier MTC1 data out of boredom again and pace is pretty good, 6.74M average THU comp. The same caveats apply (IO2 should have higher ATP than the other animations due to skew somewhat older and having PLFs but having lower ATP than TLM as that skews older and likely has more of audience to buy upfront, and Wish being on Discount Tuesday muddies things up) but the important thing is that pace healthy and gainer ground against its comparisons. Feel like tracking is right on the money of 75-85m OW but could grow stronger if pace continues strong and reviews are strong (May 26). The pace is moving nicely as we have about two and a half weeks left. Think there’s potential for ticket count pace to grow strongly. I have no comparisons but it is at Garfield’s EA-less T-3 ticket sales. Going to probably not say much on preview predictions but my thoughts of an OW in between 75m-100m still stand. Not much to make of things until we get to around 2 weeks for rudimentary guessing and opening week for figuring things out (May 25). Little has changed as IO2 keeps on trucking along. I do theorize at least from the 250 ticket selling Funko Event, it’s plausible families and fans went for that date instead of Thursday night previews. Not much to make of things until we get to around 2 weeks for rudimentary guessing and opening week for figuring things out. At the very least, I like that it doubled its previous sales a week ago as it shows pace and outdid Garfield’s T-6 (May 23). Did some snooping around for the Funko Event as I was curious if perhaps families getting presales for the opening Saturday vs opening Thursday as those sales are kind of weak Thursday and uhm it’s at 250 tickets. Which is like 5 times Garfield’s EA showing of 50 tickets all at PLF prices despite normal theaters. Most of which at 9:30 AM with only one theater having it at 11:00 AM (May 22). Based on keysoze123's Elemental, Wish, Little Mermaid, and Kung Fu Panda 4 preview data, $5.66M THU comp and $22.2M FRI comp. Not a fan of the average comp (Disney has underperformed at MTC2 so not within history to rely on it overperforming like KFP4 and IF) but really like the True FRI although it is very inconsistent. Not sure if IO2 would jump that high from the THU average. However, there’s a lot of variable since: 1. TLM should skew more towards young adults than families by nature which should make ATP higher. 2. IO2 should and does have a higher ATP than either Wish, KFP4 or Elemental due to total PLF control and presumably skews a bit older. 3. Wish was on Discount TUES so that should muddy up the comparisons. 4. The comparisons apart from Elemental are either days before or days behind. 5. Both Wish and KFP4 opened outside the summer season so internal multiplier will be different (especially with Wish’s five day) due to how summer and fall have entirely different natures in walkups which leaves just TLM/Elemental as viable comparisons. It does show that IO2 should at least open above 65m? (May 20). Seems IO2 is playing more like a kid's animation than a family event. Pretty solid for what it is. Majestic is healthy and about 66% of Garfield T-6. Thinking anywhere from 75m-100m OW rn (May 17). Only been an hour but yeah sales are softer than I expected. However, it is a month out and will largely skew more towards kids than say TLM/Across so wasn't expecting a blitz like them. Here at Marcus theaters are going all out for IO2 with it having the lion share of PLFs with it getting both screens when there is two PLFs with tentpole like levels of screens (May 14).)
  

The Bikeriders

• Pinacolada (Actually sold some around me. It does seem like Focus is giving it kind of a shitty release though. Small screens. Definitely no PLFs, which 20th Century Studios was gonna get it Dolby back when they had it. There's 3 theaters really near me. Only 1 of them has this on sale as of now, though the other 2 theaters may come later? (May 26).)

Deadpool and Wolverine Average Thursday Comp using TheFlatLannister's Dune2+GOTG3 comp: $30.46M

• AMC ("Some 200,000 movie fans have bought their AMC tickets already. This is more Day 1 ticket sales at AMC than for any other R-rated movie ever." Insiders tell The Hollywood Reporter that first-day sales are likely around $8 million to $9 million if extrapolating the 200,000 stat cited by Aron (May 22).)
  
• DEADLINE (Already heating up eight weeks before its debut, having already collected some $8M in first day ticket sales. $8M is pretty remarkable for an R-rated movie two months before release. While there are no direct comps on Deadpool & Wolverine ticket sales in post-Covid history, its current cash bests the 24-hour advance ticket sales of The Batman ($6.5M), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 ($6M) and John Wick: Chapter 4 ($1.4M). The Batman and GOTG3 opened to respective 3-day weekends of $134M and $118.4M (May 22).)
  
• FANDANGO (Broke Fandango’s best first-day ticket sales record for 2024. Best first-day pre-seller from the Deadpool franchise (May 21).)
  
• abracadabra1998 (Day 1/2 Comps (not serious ones): $25.82M/$28.14M THU. Pretty damn great day 2!(May 21).)
  
• AniNate (THU sales still largely biased towards primetime evening showings. There may be FOMO but not enough for people to take off work early. Good lord already 80+ THU previews sold for Deadpool at Canton (May 20).)
  
• AnthonyJPHer (Extremely strong growth from OD for Thursday. We have a monster on our hands here people. Buuut. Let me temper the excitement somewhat. The Friday numbers are good, stronger than Inside Out 2 by a considerable margin. However Inside Out 2 is looking very backloaded. This is looking extremely presales heavy right now. Much more than IO2’s 1,200 tickets for Friday. But here lies the problem. There is only 122 tickets separating Thursday and Friday for Deadpool and Wolverine, and for IO2, there is 500 tickets between the two days for that movie. This far out I’m not freaking out. I think the gap will increase. It just alarmed me a little. I still think it’s going to be massive though. Just a word of caution (May 28). Off to a hot start! At my theater in my town, there has been 8 tickets sold. That sounds low but it’s actually a lot, especially this far out and because Inside Out 2 hasn’t sold any tickets at my theater yet. Looking more broadly at 4 theaters I track other than my own, there is a mind- boggling 1,029 tickets sold! Already more than Inside Out 2 (May 20).)
  
• Charlie Jatinder (Comp: $28.9M THU. Moving along well (May 27). Nearly 300 sales day vs ~260 by Black Panther & ~200 of GOTG3. Another brilliant day. Given the length of sales window, comps be falling off but they have remained steady for first 4 days (May 24). Looking at keysersoze123's MTC1 data: These are incredible (May 22). $40.22M THU (MCU first day sales). Amazing day two at MiniTC2. Well ahead of BP2, GOTG3 and AM3. Not too far off from Thor 4. This is more impressive considering they all were ~25-35 days out while this is 65 days out. MTC2 has lower ATP generally due to smaller screens, less PLF, and more family friendly chain. Does much better PTA than MTC1 (May 21). MCU MTC 1 24 Hours: Doctor Strange: Multiverse of Madness ~ 210K (T-29), Thor 4 ~ 137K (T-24), DP&W ~ 120K+ (T-66), BP 2 ~ 110K (T-38), AM3 ~ 88K (T-30), and GoTG3 ~ 76K (T-30). At T-30 guess DP&W would have been around 160-170K type. Will mostly be above BP2 and below Thor 4. 3.6k so far. BP2 final was 4.6k. It’s done (crossed GOTG3 day one sales). Almost crossed GoTG3 day one sales at MiniTC2 (May 20).)
  
• Inceptionzq (Denver Comp: $25.69M THU. Drafthouse THU/FRI/SAT/SUN comp: $31.04M/$38.62M/$40.21M/$22.35M (May 21). Drafthouse THU/FRI/SAT/SUN comps with L&T 24 hours and MoM 11 hours: (1.03x0.968x) / (0.884x0.945x) / (0.912x1.01x) / (0.561x1.004x). Denver THU: In like for like theaters: (0.828x Thor L&T First 24 hours) and (0.628x Doctor Strange MoM first 11.5 hours) (May 20).)
  
• keysersoze123 (Previews was taken late yesterday and Friday data was just now. Still going quite strong. very impressive after huge OD (May 28). Still really strong 3 days later (May 25). 1st few days of PS is all about fanboys so T-x does not matter. By this FRI it will be in steady state mode. With this long a cycle that would be at very low levels. Looking at FRI sales, its IM will be closer to Thor 4 than BP2. So we can do the projections based on how the previews will go. However Its really early. Let us wait until we have T-x comps. Probably will have to wait until July to get credible comps. MTC2 early sales tend to be way weaker for all movies. The disparity for big movies is even higher. Nothing out of ordinary in day 2 pace for MTC1 (May 22). Obvious skew on previews (compared to FRI) as its 9+ weeks from release. Excellent growth even past 2:15 PM. Finished ahead of BP2 and ~20K below Thor 4 (116k for DxW and FINAL The Marvels previews at 133k). It has the longer cycle. This includes fan shows which sold 18K+ in initial check around noon PST. Fan event is just MTC1. I dont see anything for any other MTC so far or smaller chains. I think at this point we need to comp with 2022 MCU movies if OD presales are on par. Until we are within T-x cycle for this movie, we cannot comp after 1st 2-3 days. Fan shows are yuge. Adding FanShows and Previews should put it between BP2 and Thor 4 for now. Terrific OD. Over time, GotG3 should provide great comps. I can say for sure, its no where in the ballpark of DS2 which did 36m previews. Really good start. Should finish the day ahead of Ant 3 I think. Sales will taper off after fanboy rush. This does not include fan shows. No full data yet but show counts for previews (MTC1 - 7427 and MTC2 - 2914). MTC1 shows they are ready for big numbers. MTC2 is more conservative and numbers will go up close to release. If I have to guess based on really early indications, its OD between Guardians 3 and Ant 3 at MTC1. MTC2 I unfortunately cannot get data (May 20). Thor 4 is the most logical comp but that had meh WOM so IM was terrible. Previews were excellent though. Since its previews was 3 days after July 4, its final surge was stronger than even DS2. I dont think there is any difference between early and late July. All schools/colleges will still be off (May 19). Only number that matters is OD presales. after few days it will hit a trough and then it will plod along until social media reactions and reviews hit close to release. I think we can kind of predict its OW after its OD presales (May 18). RESPONSE TO PORTHOS: Captain Marvel had very strong sales on its OD despite early start. So OD is all about fans. It does not matter if you start 2 weeks before or 9 weeks. They will still book. So it would be interesting to compare OD sales not only with CM for @Porthos but also the big openers in 2022/23 period from MTC perspective. 1) DS2 - 230k ish. 2) Thor 4 - 136k ish. 3) Wakanda - 110k. 4) Ant 3 - 88K. 5) Guardians 3 - 70k ish. I wonder where Deadpool 3 will land. Anything is fine as long as it does pull in a Marvels (May 17).)
  
• Legion Again (Previews this early in summer are almost a THU opening, so Fri soemthing like +35-55% from Th is IM ~4.9-5.5. If we get some strong Fri sales when we’re close maybe I’ll drag it up to 5.6 or something but it will be really really tough to beat that. Expecting an IM close to Thor 4. Better reception (in avg case, just by regression to the mean) but bigger previews/more fanrush element, ~cancelling. T-65 Projection Matrix ($166M-$186M OW) (May 22).)
  
• Porthos (Comp: $20.87M THU. $6.72M earned so far in Sacramento (May 28). For long releases of MCU/SW Saga caliber, it usually takes about 6 to 8 days for the initial wave to stop. The Rise of Skywalker didn't really "bottom out" until D9 or so (T-51). Then at T-21, more or less, it started up its acceleration again. Can see similar patterns for MCU long runners (May 24). MCU/SW films tend to have a bit longer of a slope-down on the decent of the "u-curve" so I think I'll keep posting "Day x" comps for at least a couple more days (May 23). Pretty standard Day 2, really. Best sign, I think, is it nearly matching BP2 (that also had a long pre-sale window starting at T-38) (May 22). $22.09M THU Day 1 Comps (8.4% 3D and 58.5% PLF) (May 21). Pretty good, all things considered. BP2 and onward tell a pretty consistent picture. Do think the extra month of pre-sales is gonna mess with these comps at least a little (May 21). Since setup took 60-75 min longer, take the following with a slight grain of salt: 1:45 PM with 2,105 tickets sold. (NWH 2am: 6515), (NWH 2pm: 10685), (Batman 12:45 pm: 1693), (MoM 1:00 pm: 5030), (L&T 12:15pm: 2519), (BP2 2:15pm: 2197) and (GOTG3 12:40pm: 1317). Two theaters have not yet checked in. Seems to be broadly in line with other markets that have reported in (May 20). No comparison for a movie starting presales this early (60+ days before release). Only MCU entry which comes close is Captain Marvel (T-58) and only other Disney release is TROS (T-59). Longest pre-sale window for a major Disney release since The Last Jedi (~70 days). Longest major release since Fast X's 99 days. Probably the most on-point recent comparison will be Jurassic World 3's 43 days. Length of the pre-sale window will very likely depress D1/D2/D3 sales somewhat. It's a matter of smaller degrees when comparing something like a BP2 (starting at T-38), but that extra month is probably gonna slice some numbers off the top of the pile, especially after the first day (May 17).)
  
• TalismanRing (NYC Regal Local. 17 shows (3 3D, 3 RPX, 11 Reg 2): 102 tickets sold for first hour - almost half for the 7pm RPX showing. COMPS MON opening week: Marvels: 91 (11pm), Eternals: 266 (7pm), Black Widow: 239 (5pm), and Venom 2: 131 (6pm) (May 20).)
  
• TheFlatLannister ($150M locked imo. Don’t really see under $30M for previews and a 6x multi gets it to $180M OW. With GOTG 3 early reception I think $200M becomes a real discussion (May 22). $44.36M Dune 2 Day 2 comp. Pretty ridiculously strong day 2. Sold more tickets on T-65 than Dune 2 did in its final day of presales. $22.42M THU GOTG3 Comp. Considering this thing is 60+ days out, I'd say day 2 was amazing (May 21). Sold around 1k tickets in the last 8 hours. Keep in mind this is not T-X so once I switch to T-X 30+ days from now, comp will probably be well over $30M for GOTG. Thinking ~8k seats sold by T-30 for ~$37M comp with GOTG vol 3. DON'T TAKE THESE THU COMPS (Dune+APES+GxK) SERIOUSLY: $46.33M. Rollout is pretty insane. Has almost 200 more showings than Inside Out 2. Sold more tickets than Dune 2 did as of T-1 (Dune 2 finished with 13.6k on T-0). Also surpassed Godzilla tickets sold as of T-0. Half way finished collecting data on Deadpool for Florida and it's nearly tripled Dune 2 first 24 hours of sales and data is still flowing in. Passed GOTG3, ATSV, Dune 2 (First 24 hours) in about 3 hours. I think we can put the under $100M OW discussion to bed. To the shock of no one, this is blowing up. First 24 hours update should have average comps near $35M (May 20).)
  
• Tinalera (Toronto having an especially good run on pre sales- overall sales looking healthy (May 27). For a movie this far out, yea presales are doing well in Vancouver and Calgary. Its hard as very few movies open this early, but its healthy when we are getting between 5-10 percent sales for a movie not due out for 2 months (May 24).)
  
• TwoMisfits (Local Cinemark presale sets for DP3... 3 screens and 15 showings each - the PLF is giving 1 of 2 PLF screens and the non-PLF is doing some 3d showings. Not the set that a normal "big" Marvel movie gets, but it seems my 2 locals have taken a "put up or shut up" strategy for almost all blockbusters lately. This IS equal or more than most everything lately (although Bad Boys 4 is getting 3 screens and 14 showings at my PLF, so...). But, compared to 2019 Marvel, or even 2021 or EVEN 2023 Marvel...this is a low set (May 19).)
  
• vafrow (Comp: $45.2M THU. 12% over two days is pretty strong once the rush passes. We're not at the bottom of the curve yet it seems (May 24). 8% growth at this stage is very positive. I expect another drop tomorrow, but I'm probably not going to touch this until the weekend at this stage. I'm comping high, and without a proper MCU comparison (Marvels doesn't count), it's hard to gauge, but I feel this is just doing really well here (May 22). 20% growth on day 2 when it had a really strong first day is impressive. Ahead of T-1 for Dune Previews to officially be the highest selling film I've tracked since I switched to the 5 theatre radius (May 21). MTC4 has really jacked up plf prices in the last year or so, and D&W is skewed heavily towards PLFs in my track. I'm not sure how many trackers are doing price adjustments, but lack of good MCU comps in the last year could see a big price impact. Watching L&T comps in particular because being a rare adult skewing July MCU film seems to be the most ideal (May 21). Solid jump over the course of the day. Dolby sales jumped up the most, potentially as good IMAX screens got taken. Not sure what happened for the East coast this morning, but sales seemed to have rebounded. A little hit and miss in different markets, but that's what I'd assume for that region. There's some small communities. Not sure why it took so long for sales to hit when southern Ontario was hot off the mark. People may have assumed 9:00 am eastern time. Numbers pulled around 11:00 am, so two hours worth of data. Chain is pushing 3D for the ticket premium. Exception is IMAX showings, where I think they know people just want the 2D experience. 60% of sales being those four IMAX showings. 40 minutes into presales for my area. Almost triple Dune 2 on my first measurement for that, which was Day 2. Bit ahead of my first measurement for The Marvels, which was T-21, and I think about a week into sales. They're really leaning into 3D showings. I get the desire for theatres to get the extra premium, but I can't see a lot of people wanting to see this in 3D. Has been up for sale on the Canadian East coast, presumably from 9:00 local time. I did a sweep of all showtimes on MTC4, but there's been zero sales so far (May 20).)
  
• YM! (Sold ~10.6x Furiosa's T-6. One theater makes up a sizeable percentage of most mid-sized Marvel's T-2 in a span of hours. Such a strong start. Definitely feels like we got a potential 25m previews/150m+ opener. Still don't buy 200m OW but am starting to see 30m previews/175m+ OW as a strong possibility. On its first day has sold over 10x Furiosa T-6 here in SE Wisconsin. At North Shore, 70% of Shang-Chi’s and Venom 2’s T-2, 47% of Homecoming’s T-2, and 41.25% of Thor: Ragnarök’s T-2 - just using DP&W’s T-66! At half of Furiosa’s T-4 sales here in the past ten minutes in just two of the theaters PLF shows (May 20). 42 showings for previews across four SE Wisconsin theaters I track. ~20% more showings than IO2 and about the same amount of PLFs spread. Likely 3-4 screens a theater for THU previews, but has SuperScreen + 2 UltraScreen screens in Majestic Cinema. Seems to be a 3D push with North Shore having primetime showings in 3D UltraScreen (May 19).)
  

Domestic Calendar Dates (last updated May 23):
MAY

• (May 28) Presales Start [The Forge]
  
• (May 29) Presales Start [A Quiet Place: Day One]
  
• (May 30) THU Previews [Ezra + Haikyu!! + In a Violent Nature + Summer Camp + Robot Dreams + Young Woman and the Sea]
  
• (May 31) Presales Start [Daddio]
  

JUNE

• (June 3) Opening Day [MON: Spider-Man No Way Home Re-Release]
  
• (June 5) Presales Start [Despicable Me 4]
  
• (June 6) Presales Start [Twisters]
  
• (June 6) THU Previews [Bad Boys: Ride or Die + Watchers]
  
• (June 8) 1-SAT Re-Release (1st day) [LotR: Fellowship of the Ring Extended Edition]
  
• (June 9) 1-SUN Re-Release (1st day) [LotR: Two Towers Extended Edition]
  
• (June 10) 1-MON Re-Release (1st day) [LotR: Return of the King Extended Edition]
  
• (June 13) THU Previews [Inside Out 2]
  
• (June 15) 1-SAT Re-Release (2nd day) [LotR: Fellowship of the Ring Extended Edition]
  
• (June 16) 1-SUN Re-Release (2nd day) [LotR: Two Towers Extended Edition]
  
• (June 17) 1-MON Re-Release (2nd day) [LotR: Return of the King Extended Edition]
  
• (June 20) THU Previews [Bikeriders + Janet Planet]
  
• (June 22) 1-SAT Re-Release (3rd day) [LotR: Fellowship of the Ring Extended Edition]
  
• (June 23) 1-SUN Re-Release (3rd day) [LotR: Two Towers Extended Edition]
  
• (June 24) 1-MON Re-Release (3rd day) [LotR: Return of the King Extended Edition]
  
• (June 27) THU Previews [Blue Lock + Daddio + Horizon: Chapter 1 + A Quiet Place: Day One]
  

JULY

• (July 1) Presales Start [Fly Me to the Moon + Longlegs]
  
• (July 2) Opening Day [WED: Despicable Me 4]
  
• (July 4) Opening Day [THU: Possum Trot]
  
• (July 4) THU Previews [MaXXXine]
  
• (July 11) THU Previews [Fly Me to the Moon + Untitled New Line Horror movie]
  
• (July 17) EA [Twisters]
  
• (July 18) THU Previews [Twisters]
  
• (July 25) THU Previews [Deadpool and Wolverine (including 1 PLF fan show at 3 PM) + Didi + Fabulous Four]
  
• (July 29) Presales Start [Alien: Romulus + It Ends With Us]
  

AUGUST

• (August 1) THU Previews [Harold and the Purple Crayon]
  
• (August 5) Presales Start [Borderlands]
  
• (August 8) THU Previews [Borderlands + It Ends With Us + Cuckoo + The Fire Inside + Trap]
  
• (August 12) Presales Start [Alien: Romulus]
  
• (August 15) THU Previews [Alien: Romulus + Horizon: Chapter 2 + Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure]
  
• (August 22) THU Previews [Blink Twice + The Crow + The Forge + Slingshot]
  
• (August 29) THU Previews [City of Dreams + Reagan + They Listen]
  

Presale Tracking Posts:
May 11
May 14
May 16
May 18
May 21
May 23
May 25
Note: I have removed most tracking data that has not been updated for 2 weeks. I think there is value in keeping data for a week or two but at a certain point they start to lose their value and should not be treated the same as more recent tracking data.

Found this article after doing a quick deep-dive after this post from u/evilez:
https://www.reddit.com/UFOs/comments/1d33m4l/does_anybody_remember_what_podcast_this_was/
"Hello fine ladies and gentlemen! I remember listening to a podcast less than a year ago. The main subject of the podcast was UFOs (I think)... anyways the guest told a story that a congressman or senator wrote a bill that was against the CIA or going to defund the CIA, in the 80's... and shortly thereafter, someone broke into his home, dragged his wife out into the street and stuck a gun in her mouth and told her to kill the bill."
Some light Googling brought up this article about the history of the CIA, the OSS, and Daniel Patrick Moynihan's attempts at defunding the agency in the 90s.
Here's an article about that attempt brought by Moynihan published on the Carnegie Endowment Website on December 20, 2005.
https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2005/12/the-case-for-abolishing-the-cia?lang=en
Here's the New Yorker piece about all of this from October 3rd, 2022.

Spooked -- What’s wrong with the C.I.A.? -- By Amy Davidson Sorkin -- October 3, 2022

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/10/10/has-the-cia-done-more-harm-than-good
According to the article regarding the resuscitation of the OSS as the CIA immediately following Roswell and the Twining Memo:
"Many of its officers moved straight to the new C.I.A. Most consequentially, perhaps, four future directors of the C.I.A. were O.S.S. veterans: Allen Dulles, Richard Helms, William Colby, and William Casey."
Here's the New Yorker article in full:
"On January 4, 1995, Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, of New York, introduced a bill called the Abolition of the Central Intelligence Agency Act. It had been a rough stretch for the C.I.A. The year before, Aldrich Ames, a longtime officer, had been convicted of being a longtime mole for Soviet (and then Russian) intelligence. Despite having a reputation among his colleagues as a problem drinker who appeared to live far beyond his means, Ames had been given high-level assignments with access to the names of American sources in the U.S.S.R. When the F.B.I. finally arrested him, he was in the Jaguar he used for commuting to work at Langley; by then, he was responsible for the death of at least ten agents. Moynihan said that the case was such a flamboyant display of incompetence that it might actually be a distraction from “the most fundamental defects of the C.I.A.” He meant that the agency—in what he considered to be its “defining failure”—had both missed the fact that the Soviet Union was on the verge of collapse and done little to hasten its end.
He gave a diagnosis for what had gone wrong. “Secrecy keeps mistakes secret,” he said. “Secrecy is a disease. It causes a hardening of the arteries of the mind.” He quoted John le Carré on that point, adding that the best information actually came from the likes of area specialists, diplomats, historians, and journalists. If the C.I.A. was disbanded, he said, the State Department could pick up the intelligence work, and do a better job.
Moynihan was, in some respects, being disingenuous. As he well knew, even if his bill had passed, spies and spying wouldn’t have gone away. The State Department already had its own mini agency, the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. The Departments of Energy and Treasury each had one, too. The Defense Intelligence Agency conducted clandestine operations; U.S. Army Intelligence, Air Force Intelligence, and the Office of Naval Intelligence kept themselves busy as well. The National Security Agency was nearly two decades away from the revelation, by Edward Snowden, a contractor and a former C.I.A. employee, that it had collected information about the phone calls of most Americans, but it was a behemoth even in Moynihan’s time. So was the Federal Bureau of Investigation. There were about a dozen agencies then; now, after reforms that were supposed to streamline things, there are eighteen, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (O.D.N.I.), a sort of meta-C.I.A. that has a couple of thousand employees, and the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis. The Drug Enforcement Administration (which currently has foreign offices in sixty-nine countries) has an Office of National Security Intelligence. Four million people in the United States now have security clearances.
It can be hard to sort out which agencies do what; players in the espionage business aren’t always good with boundaries. Both the C.I.A. and the N.S.A. make use of satellite resources, including commercial ones, but there is a separate agency in charge of a spy-satellite fleet, the National Reconnaissance Office—not to be confused with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, which deals with both space-based and ground-level imaging, or with Space Delta 18, the nation’s newest intelligence agency, which is attached to the Space Force. Abolishing the C.I.A. might do nothing more than reconfigure the turf wars.
[NOTE: both Sean Kirkpatrick and David Grusch worked for the NRO and at least Grusch worked for the NGA]
As the senator from New York also knew, a large proportion of the C.I.A.’s resources are devoted not to intelligence gathering but to covert operations, some of which look like military operations. In “Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence” (Princeton)—one of several recent books that coincide with the seventy-fifth anniversary of the agency’s founding—Amy B. Zegart, a political scientist at Stanford, writes that it’s “getting harder to know just where the CIA’s role ends and the military’s role begins.” Yet the agency’s paramilitary pursuits and related covert activities go back decades. They include the botched Bay of Pigs landing, the brutal Phoenix Program in Vietnam, and a long list of assassination attempts, coup plots, the mining of a harbor (with explosive devices the agency built itself), and drone strikes. These operations have very seldom ended well.
Moynihan’s bill had no more luck than another that he introduced the same day, aimed at ending Major League Baseball’s exemption from antitrust laws. In each case, people understood that there was a problem, but both institutions were protected by the sense that there was something essential, and perhaps authentically American, about them, including their very brokenness. A sudden turn of events can convince even the C.I.A.’s most sober critics that the agency will save us all, whether from terrorists or from Donald Trump. But, seventy-five years in, it’s far from clear whether the C.I.A. is good at its job, or what that job is or should be, or how we could get rid of the agency if we wanted to.
How did we end up with the C.I.A.? A familiar explanation is that the shock of Pearl Harbor made the United States realize it needed more spies; the Office of Strategic Services was formed and jumped into action; and, when the war ended, the O.S.S. evolved seamlessly into the C.I.A., ready to go out and win the Cold War. But that narrative isn’t quite right, particularly regarding the relationship between the O.S.S. and the C.I.A.
[NOTE: We know how ended up with the CIA. ROSWELL.]
The United States has always used spies of some sort. George Washington had a discretionary espionage budget for which he didn’t have to turn in receipts. In the early part of the twentieth century, the State Department had an intelligence-analysis unit, along with a cryptography group called the Black Chamber, which operated out of a brownstone in New York’s Murray Hill until it was shut down, in 1929. The Army and the Navy had cryptography and reconnaissance units, too. When the Second World War began, their operations ramped up dramatically, and, as Nicholas Reynolds recounts in “Need to Know: World War II and the Rise of American Intelligence” (Mariner), these units, not the O.S.S., handled most of the code-breaking. The problem became the volume of raw intelligence. The task of making sense of it and of turning it into something that policymakers could use went to an office within the Army’s military-intelligence division (or G-2), which, Reynolds says, produced “the country’s best strategic intelligence” during the war. That office’s work was directed by Alfred McCormack, a former clerk for Supreme Court Justice Harlan Stone and a partner at Cravath, Swaine & Moore. Many of the people he brought in were young corporate lawyers; the theory was that their training in plowing through mountains of documents made them ideal intelligence analysts.
William J. Donovan, who led and largely conceived of the O.S.S., was also a Wall Street lawyer, but one with an aversion to the “legalistic.” What Donovan envisioned was essentially an array of commando units that would operate stealthily and behind enemy lines. In practice, what he tried to build, according to a colleague, was a “private army.” His escapades often risked too much and gained too little. In late 1943, one of his own officers wrote to him that “the set-up has been incredibly wasteful in manpower and, except for a few spotty accomplishments, has been a national failure.” And it had produced “chaos in the field.” Donovan’s nickname was Wild Bill, but his staff called him Seabiscuit, after the thoroughbred, because of his tendency to race around, engaging in what was basically war tourism. In the end, though, the O.S.S. made real contributions, including through its contacts with the French Resistance. But Donovan’s complaint about D Day was that there was “too much planning.” Counterintelligence and strategic thinking bored him, and the O.S.S.’s analysis division was seen as secondary to its operations.
When Harry Truman became President, in April, 1945, he took a look at the O.S.S. and, in September, 1945, abolished it. About two years later, he signed the National Security Act, which established the C.I.A. (and the Department of Defense), but he didn’t want the new agency to be like the group Donovan had run. Instead, it was supposed to do what its name suggested: centralize the intelligence that various agencies gathered, analyze it, and turn it into something the President could use.
[NOTE: I tried doing some research after reading something yesterday about how the NSA was developed in 1952 under Project Sigma to try and decode "alien" communications. If anyone can offer anything, you'd be helping humanity.]
“It was not intended as a ‘Cloak and Dagger’ Outfit!,” Truman later wrote. He also had to deal with public apprehensions that he might create what a Chicago Tribune headline called a “Super Gestapo Agency”—which is why, in its charter, the C.I.A. was banned from domestic spying.
Reynolds’s book is the best of the recent batch, and the most readable. It does not retrofit the history of the O.S.S. around the assumption that the C.I.A. was the inevitable lead postwar intelligence agency. There were other contenders, including a version of McCormack’s office in the State Department—something like what Moynihan wanted. J. Edgar Hoover argued that “World Wide Intelligence” should be turned over to the F.B.I., with military intelligence subservient to him. In some alternative history, he might have pulled that off; by 1943, he was running undercover operations in twenty Latin American countries. And so things could have been worse.
[WHAT UNDERCOVER OPERATIONS WERE WE RUNNING IN LATIN AMERICANS COUNTRIES IN 1943.]
Donovan was an adept publicist, but what mattered most, in the end, was that he was good, or lucky, when it came to hiring people. Despite the “pale, male, and Yale” stereotype, the O.S.S. was somewhat more diverse than other units, and certainly more eclectic. Among its ranks were Ralph Bunche, Herbert Marcuse, and Julia Child. Many of its officers moved straight to the new C.I.A. Most consequentially, perhaps, four future directors of the C.I.A. were O.S.S. veterans: Allen Dulles, Richard Helms, William Colby, and William Casey. Each seems to have had glory-day memories of the O.S.S., which is to say that each, in various ways, was afflicted with what a general in Army intelligence called “the screwball Donovan effect.” Casey, who put a picture of Donovan on his wall, said of his old boss, “We all glowed in his presence.” Wild Bill lost the bureaucratic fight but won the personnel and mythology wars.
And, of course, the agency found customers and collaborators in the White House. There was no mention of covert action in the law that chartered the C.I.A., but Presidents—starting with Truman—began using it that way. One of the agency’s first operations involved meddling in the 1948 Italian election, to insure the victory of the Christian Democrats. The subsidies and outright bribery of Italian politicians, some of them on the far, far right, continued into the nineteen-seventies.
Almost from its creation, though, there was a sense that something about the C.I.A. was off. The split between covert action and intelligence gathering and analysis was part of it. The director of the agency was also supposed to be the leader of U.S. intelligence as a whole, but, invariably, the person in the job seemed more invested in preëminence than in coördination. That setup remained in place until the establishment of the O.D.N.I., in 2004, a move that thus far has mostly continued a tradition of trying to deal with the C.I.A.’s dysfunction by setting up ever more agencies, offices, and centers. (The N.S.A. was established, in 1952, in response to a series of cryptography-related failures.) “Legacy of Ashes,” Tim Weiner’s 2008 history of the C.I.A.—and still an invaluable overview—takes its title from a lament by Eisenhower about what he’d be leaving his successors if the “faulty” structure of American intelligence wasn’t changed. Since Weiner’s book was published, the ashes, and the agencies, have only been piling up.
Zegart’s “Spies, Lies, and Algorithms” aims to bring that history to the present. Zegart has served as an adviser to intelligence agencies, and she provides a decent guide to our current bureaucracy. Throughout, her book is clear and well organized—maybe a little too well organized, one feels, after taking in the “Seven Deadly Biases” of intelligence analysis, the “Four Main Adversaries” and the “Five Types of Attack” in the crypto area, and the “Three Words, Four Types” that define covert action. (The covert-action words, incidentally, are “influence,” “acknowledged,” and “abroad.”) Not a few paragraphs read like PowerPoint charts; contradictions are displayed without really being reckoned with. She observes that the balance between “hunting” and “gathering” seems off, but, in her telling, the fact that Presidents of both parties regularly turn to the C.I.A. for paramilitary and other covert tasks constitutes proof that doing so is part of the order of things. The impression she leaves is that if it all goes wrong, it’s because some checklist has been missed. One of the top priorities of U.S. intelligence today, she thinks, should be persuading tech companies to get with the program and help out. She moots the creation of yet another agency, to deal with OSINT—open-source intelligence.
In one chapter, Zegart provides a list of scandals involving spying within the U.S. by various intelligence agencies—notably the N.S.A., the F.B.I., and the C.I.A. “All of these activities violated American law,” she writes. “But that’s the point: domestic laws forbid this kind of surveillance of Americans.” How is that the point, exactly? She depicts the Senate’s 2014 Torture Report, which detailed profound abuses in the C.I.A.’s so-called black sites, as a they-said, the-agency-said, who-knows case. She turns it into a parable about the problems with Congress—suggesting that, although the committee structure may have needed rejiggering, the moral compass of those involved in the program of torture was just fine.
Another new volume, “A Question of Standing: A History of the CIA” (Oxford), by Rhodri Jeffreys-Jones, a professor emeritus of history at the University of Edinburgh, offers the insights of a more distant observer. He can be astute about how “false memories” of the O.S.S.’s accomplishments have led the C.I.A. astray. Part of his argument is that the agency has acted as if its influence depended on its standing with whoever is in the White House, thus motivating it to offer Presidents quick fixes that fix nothing. The net effect is to reduce its standing, and that of the U.S., with the public at home and abroad. But Jeffreys-Jones is prone to rash generalizations and pronouncements. He theorizes that, in the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, George W. Bush’s national-security adviser, Condoleezza Rice, may have been susceptible to “war mongering” due to her status as “a descendant of slaves,” and that the working-class background of the C.I.A.’s director, George Tenet, made him more likely to vouch for the faulty intelligence on weapons of mass destruction used to justify the war. “Social mobility so often leads to conformity,” warns Jeffreys-Jones, himself the son of an academic historian.
During the Vietnam War, the C.I.A. had discouraging intelligence to offer, and, when successive Administrations didn’t want to hear it, focussed on being helpful by providing those supposedly quick fixes. That meant abetting a coup in 1963, spying on antiwar protesters, and launching the Phoenix Program, an anti-Vietcong campaign marked by torture and by arbitrary executions; in total, more than twenty thousand people were killed under Phoenix’s auspices.
Phoenix was run by William Colby, the O.S.S. alum, who was soon promoted to C.I.A. director. At lower levels, discontent about Vietnam fueled leaks. In December, 1974, the journalist Seymour Hersh told the agency that he was about to publish a story in the Times exposing its domestic spying. Whether in a miscalculation or (as Jeffreys-Jones somewhat breathlessly speculates) as an act of personal expiation, Colby gave Hersh partial confirmation. Amid the scandals and the Congressional hearings that followed, Colby angered some of his colleagues, and Henry Kissinger, by laying bare even more. It emerged that, in 1973, Colby’s predecessor had asked senior agency officials to produce a list of things the C.I.A. had done that might have been unlawful. The resulting document, covering just the prior fifteen years, was known in-house as “The Family Jewels,” and was almost seven hundred pages long.
The question of how much it matters who works at the C.I.A. is a perennial one. The influence of Donovan’s acolytes shows that decisions about whom you recruit can, in a formative period or at a critical juncture, make a big difference. But, once an institutional culture has become entrenched, it can be easier to see how the institution shapes the people within it than vice versa.
“Wise Gals: The Spies Who Built the CIA and Changed the Future of Espionage” (Putnam), by Nathalia Holt, comes at the question from a different angle. It’s about five women who worked for the early C.I.A.; three also worked at the O.S.S., and one, Eloise Page, began her career as Bill Donovan’s secretary. Holt is also the author of “Rise of the Rocket Girls,” about women in the early years of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and “The Queens of Animation,” about women at the Walt Disney Company. Her book contains fine material for a beautifully art-directed streaming series, with set pieces in postwar Paris, nineteen-fifties Baghdad, and nineteen-seventies Greece, where Page was the C.I.A.’s first woman station chief. It even has a framing device in the form of the “Petticoat Panel,” a working group of C.I.A. women that convened in 1953 to document their unequal pay and treatment. Holt quotes the transcript of the meeting at which the leadership of the agency summarily rejected their findings. Helms, the future director, says, “It is just nonsense for these gals to come on here and think that the government is going to fall apart because their brains aren’t going to be used to the maximum.” (In 1977, Helms was convicted of lying to Congress about the C.I.A.’s machinations in Chile.) What the book is not, unfortunately, is a coherent history of the C.I.A., of the era it depicts, or even of these women’s work.
Holt’s research does turn up evidence that Jane Burrell, one of her subjects, was the first C.I.A. officer to die in the line of duty, in a plane crash in France, in 1948, a fact that the agency itself apparently missed. Holt ends her book with a call for a star honoring Burrell to be added to the C.I.A.’s memorial wall. Of the hundred and thirty-seven officers represented there, she writes, forty-five died accidentally, the majority in plane crashes, meaning that Burrell’s case would be fairly typical. Burrell was on the return leg of a trip to Brussels, where she’d been sent to talk to war-crimes investigators about a mess the C.I.A. had created by relying on an agent who turned out to have worked with the S.S. and was now in custody. In that respect, too, Burrell, who had personally handled the agent, was typical of the C.I.A. (After Burrell vouched for him, the man was released.) The subject of the C.I.A.’s postwar relations with former Nazis—some of whom, like Reinhard Gehlen, it helped to install in West Germany’s new intelligence service—and with collaborationist émigré groups is, no doubt, a morass. Holt, alas, manages to make the story even more garbled than it has to be. In the end, she basically treats the whole sordid episode as a learning experience for the Gals.
The problem is that the agency doesn’t seem to learn much. Holt credits Mary Hutchison with helping to build a network of émigré Ukrainian nationalists. Beginning in 1949, the agency parachuted some of them (including one whom Hutchison apparently distrusted) behind the Soviet border, where they were quickly captured—and repeated the same procedure for a number of years. “Despite the catastrophe, the Ukraine operation would serve as a template moving forward,” Holt writes. “The C.I.A. had more success with back-to-back operations in Iran and Guatemala, where covert action was able to deftly oust leaders considered undesirable.” It’s odd to describe these coups as deft. One of Zegart’s handy lists is of the “unintended consequences” in Iran: “religious extremism, a revolutionary overthrow, the American hostage crisis, severed ties, regional instability, and today’s rising nuclear dangers.” Guatemala is still dealing with the violent legacy of the coup that the C.I.A. visited upon it. Then there’s the question of the intended consequences, which were, respectively, to elevate a shah and a military regime. Secret wars tend not to be so secret in the country where they take place.
It was, no doubt, frustrating for Hutchison when, a few years later, her colleagues on the Bay of Pigs task force failed to make use of her Spanish-language skills. But are we supposed to think that the whole misconceived enterprise would have gone off without a hitch were it not for the C.I.A.’s misogyny? One of Holt’s minor themes is that women in the C.I.A. were seen as more natural analysts than operatives—with analysis, in turn, seen as less manly, and less valuable, to everybody’s detriment. But she is more intent on showing that these women were also daring. The main point of “Wise Gals” is that it’s cool that women were in the early C.I.A., and therefore that the C.I.A. itself was cooler than we’d realized. Holt celebrates a big promotion Page got that afforded her access to the secret of a safe containing shellfish-derived poison. You don’t have to be pale, male, and Yale to be complicit in a bungled assassination plot, or, for that matter, a program of rendition and torture.
Why do so many books about the C.I.A. have trouble getting their story straight? It can’t just be the secrecy of the work itself, at least with regard to the earlier years, about which much has been declassified. (Much remains under wraps: Moynihan complained that classification created more than six million supposed secrets in 1993; Zegart writes that the number in 2016 was fifty-five million—not all of which can possibly have been critical.) The aura of secrecy, by contrast, probably does distort the judgment of its chroniclers. And the scope of the agency’s work is a challenge: it’s hard to write expertly on places as far-ranging as the Democratic Republic of Congo (where the agency initially planned to poison President Patrice Lumumba’s toothpaste, and instead ended up handing a quarter of a million dollars to Joseph Mobutu, the country’s future dictator, who facilitated the assassination) and Afghanistan (where the C.I.A. has had forty years of illusory gains and worse losses). But the biggest problem may be the agency’s own pattern of self-deception. Holt, for example, sometimes seems to go wrong when, rummaging through the archives, she gives too much credit to contemporaneous internal assessments of an agent’s or an operation’s worth.
In truth, the C.I.A. has had a “defining failure” for every decade of its existence—sometimes more than one. For Moynihan, in the nineteen-nineties, it was the lack of foresight about the Soviet Union; in the two-thousands, it was the phantom weapons of mass destruction, followed by torture and, in still evolving ways, by the drone-based program of targeted killings, with its high toll of civilian deaths. Barack Obama’s rapport with John Brennan, the C.I.A.’s director from 2013 to 2017, seems to have brought him to accept the view that the killing of American citizens abroad was acceptable, if managed prudently. The overuse of the agency on the battlefield is due not to a military-manpower shortage but to wishful thinking about the benefits of secrecy and of a lack of accountability.
It’s difficult to know, at this point, what the C.I.A.’s next defining failure—or, if one tries to be optimistic, its stabilizing success—will be. Donald Trump has had a complicated relationship with the intelligence community—increasingly capitalized and abbreviated to I.C.—which is presently conducting a damage assessment regarding documents with classified markings that he kept at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida home. He might, of course, be reëlected, and have the C.I.A.’s tools at his disposal again. If the C.I.A. isn’t the place to turn for an expedient solution to foreign-policy problems, neither is it bound to be the place to turn for a solution to our democracy’s political problems.
“If you ask intelligence officers what misperceptions bother them most, odds are they’ll mention ethics,” Zegart writes. She quotes an official who complains that “people think we’re lawbreakers, we’re human rights violators.” She insists that “officers think about ethics a lot.” She portrays the agency as being filled with hardworking moms and dads who do a great deal of “agonizing.” No doubt she’s right. But if the C.I.A. keeps falling down all the same, something must be tragically amiss in the agency’s structure or culture, or both. All the talk of coups and assassination plots, Zegart worries, distracts people from understanding the C.I.A.’s more basic intelligence mission. In fact, the party most distracted by such activities—and by the military role it has taken on—seems to be the agency itself. ♦
An earlier version of this article misstated the numerical designation of the Space Force unit dedicated to intelligence.
Published in the print edition of the October 10, 2022, issue.

First, I want readers to know what I'm doing.
Exact 3 Cover: Give a list S of distinct whole numbers with a length divisible by 3, and a collection of subsets of size 3.
Decide if a combination of subsets covers every element in S only one time. For example S = 1,2,3 C = {1, 2,3} The answer is yes because {1,2,3} covers every element in S only one time.
Here's how my transformation works, I'm reducing Exact 3 Cover into Subset-sum
The first thing is to transform my input into this pattern of odd primes into prime powers.
And then transform the subsets of size 3 into sums and use the sum of all the elements in the transformed universe as our target sum. And, then I'll use the pseudo polynomial time algorithm for subset sum as my heuristic.
As an example for our reduction, it would look like S = 1,2,3 and C = {1,2,3}, the transformation would be S = 3^5, 5^6, 7^7 and C = {3^5, 5^6, 7^7}

# [3^5, 5^6, 7^7] Size 3 # [11^5, 13^6, 17^7, 19^5, 23^6, 29^7] Size 6 # [31^5, 37^6, 41^7, 43^5, 47^6, 53^7, 59^5, 61^6, 67^7] Size 9 

• Go to last iteration, such as [3,5,7] Notice i[len(i)-1] is 7
• Find prime larger than i[len(i)-1] which is 11
• Generate N odd primes start at 11, which is 11,13,17,19,23,29. Where N is six.
• Raise each odd prime to the powers of 5,6,7 in sequential order (eg. a^5, b^6, c^7, d^5, e^6, f^7, g^5...)
• This ensures list of different sizes always has a unique list of odd primes. And that it uses primes powers larger than the last one. This is to try spread out the values so that collision is hard to find.

I will be using a subset sum dynamic solution to see if multiples of prime powers can sum up to all the elements in the list of odd prime powers. We're only using prime powers from that list.
The code isn't completed because, I'm going to need to be able to backtrack a solution to see if there's no collision, however the code should work for cases for counterexamples with more than 3m elements.
Edit: Its almost 3 AM, my logic part of my brain isn't working. I think it might actually work because if its larger than 3m elements, collision is required!
Without backtracking, I can't see the counter example in order to verify if it follows combinatoric rules.

import math def countWays(A, m, N): count = [0 for i in range(N + 1)] # base case count[0] = 1 # Count ways for all values up # to 'N' and store the result for i in range(1, N + 1): for j in range(m): # if i >= A[j] then # accumulate count for value 'i' as # ways to form value 'i-A[j]' if (i >= A[j]): count[i] += count[i - A[j]] if count[i] > math.factorial(len(A)): return False # Driver Code A = [4,5,13,15] m = len(A) N = sum(A) # We want to see if there are ZERO ways using multiples of numbers # in A that sums up to all the elements of A. # (eg. supposse A = 2,6 answer is FALSE because 2*4 = 8 and sum(A) = 8 # If there are more than math.factorial(len(A)) solutions then output false if countWays(A, m, N) == False: print('False') else: print('True') 

Since the sum of all the elements have shown polynomial magnitudes, this search for a counterexample could theoretically be done in polynomial time. Perhaps this is a special case of Diophantine equations in P.

Hello!
I hope you're all doing well!
Gonna try to keep this under 40k characters... so, the main event is going to be a bit shorter than usual, so if you have questions about that particular fight (or any, really), let me know and i can expand on thoughts and answer those questions!
Also, if you have feedback about the slightly new format, let me know!
(c) - Champ
D/DWCS - Debut/Dana Whites' Contender Series
FLS - Fight Lose Streak
FWS - Fight Win Streak
NS - No Streak
(#x) - Rank in division
x/3 - Confidence Levels
Lets go!
Prelims
Flyweight
Andre Lima (8-0-0, 8 FWS) v Mitch Raposo (D) (9-1-0, 4 FWS) - I feel for Lima here, three changes in opponent during this entire camp, that can’t be easy for the mental stress, but I do think that this last minute change gives Lima that advantage in preparation and cardio and such.
Lima is coming off quite an interesting debut result, in which his opponent straight up chomped on Lima’s arm. For the most part prior to that unique moment, Lima was doing relatively well on the feet, his boxing was crisp and whilst Severino was being pretty effective with his wrestling and pressure, you can almost see Lima settle in the longer the fight went on, and in the second round, he was finding his punches fairly easily, landing at a 66% rate in that second round. That has always been Lima’s main attribute as a boxer, his accuracy is oftentimes high when he fights, never wasting many shots as he sets his own pace and finds his timing, and it’s going to be relatively effective against Raposo who has a slight disadvantage in reach, and has a rather funky style himself, and sometimes funk is fun, but not when you have a sharp boxer opposite you.
Raposo is someone who tried to get into the UFC a while ago via Dana Whites’ Contender Series, but didn’t quite succeed due to a loss against Jake Hadley. Raposo is a fairly well rounded fighter but from the footage that I have seen, he is mostly a stand up fighter who utilises variations of a two to three punch combination, with a bit of an emphasis on his wide right that he tends to swing from a somewhat loaded up position. Now, I do want to point out in a positive light that he does come from the New England Cartel, and that gym generally produces outstanding strikers, but I just think Raposo is a few steps (or leaps) behind the stars of the gym in Kattar and Font. Now, there are positives for Raposo, he shells up relatively well and he doesn’t stay in firing range the whole time, especially when shelling up, he circles away whilst keeping his guard up. The one thing I cannot help but notice though is how exposed his body is to attacks, he isn’t that adaptable when it comes to his defences, and whilst he has a very typical high shell, I can just see Lima exposing the body with strong punches, and given that Raposo isn’t quite prepared properly for a fight against Lima, those body punches could shut him down. Now, Raposo does have a strong right hand, the one he tends to wind up and throw from the same angle at the same speed and such, but once it lands it could certainly cause trouble for Lima.
Lima has incredible potential in the UFC, his boxing is very sharp and I do think that the fact he has been preparing for a fight for quite some time now shows that he has the cardio and the durability to perhaps outlast Raposo, especially if those body shots that I predict will be there, land effectively. I almost want to make him a 2/3 confidence pick, but since he’s new to the UFC, and Raposo does have a bit of danger himself, I don’t feel comfortable putting him that high of a confidence pick. This is a fun first fight of the night.
Lima via KO R2 - (1/3)
Women’s Bantamweight
Joselyne Edwards (+210) (13-5-0, NS) v Ailin Perez (-265) (9-2-0, 2 FWS)
Edwards has had an interesting time in the UFC, she has had rather lacklustre performances against some of the more lower skilled fighters in the division. Edwards was introduced to us fans as a kickboxer from Panama, and for the most part her performances have echoed that style of kickboxing, but she walks into two metaphorical brick walls which hinder her performances. First, her cardio tends to fall apart relatively quickly, she does look fatigued after the second round, heck, even during it, and I do think considering Perez’s skillset is heavily wrestling based, that the fatigue problems will be a bit more prevalent, but that also tends to lead to a different issue that Edwards walks into, and that’s her weight. See, Edwards missed weight a few times in the UFC so far, and whilst those issues on the scales are perhaps anomalous to those two incidences, it does somewhat connect with her fatigue problems, she carries a lot of weight on fight day and that’s all a major contributor to exhaustion and fatigue. As for her record, it’s been stated many times, but she’s been gifted quite a few scorecards… She arguably lost to Pascual, Pudilova and even went to a split decision against Kim Ji-yeon. To say her record is pretty sketchy is putting it lightly. Her style is pretty standard for a boxer or kickboxer, she often strings together decent combinations with a fair bit of power given her size, but her major weakness is defending takedowns, and given that Perez is perhaps the first major wrestler that she is going to face, I suspect she’s going to be struggling to defend those takedowns, especially the longer the fight goes on, when that fatigue problem kicks in (if it kicks in).
Perez on the other hand is slightly more newer to the UFC, having had her debut at 145 against Egger before moving back down to 135 to take on Ashlee Evans-Smith and Pudilova, and it was in those two fights that we truly saw what Perez is capable of. Perez is very dependent on her takedowns, she does not strike a whole lot on her feet, she often uses some strikes to close the distance then level changes for a takedown or a judo throw, in which she then unleashes a lot of ground strikes, and it’s a bit obvious to me that she is going to utilise that exact style against the much taller and longer Edwards. Now, the longer this fight remains on the feet, the more chance Edwards has of pulling away with a win, but I only say that because I know that Edwards is going to have a striking advantage, but her kicks perhaps would be shut down by the wrestling threat of Perez.
This is very much a wrestler versus striker bout, and whilst you might argue that Edwards has shown some wrestling in her last fight against Cornolle, it’s important to know that Cornolle most definitely was not a wrestler so those takedowns would have been relatively easy, and there’s no doubt that Edwards has worked on her wrestling just so she is a more well rounded individual. I still firmly believe that Perez is going to get a win here through her wrestling, and the longer the fight goes on, the more Edwards is most likely to feel that fatigue. I am predicting a KO here, but it is going to be one of those ground and pound TKO’s. It’s also very possible this fight goes the distance so if you want to place a bet, either double chance this one or just have it go o2.5 or something.
Perez via KO R3 - (2/3)
Welterweight
Mickey Gall (+225) (7-5-0, 2 FLS) v Bassil Hafez (-290) (8-4-1, NS) - There is honestly not a lot to say about this one, Gall is severely overrated and a bit of a failed product of the Lookin’ for a fight show, and Hafez still has quite a lot to show us given he went three rounds against future contender Jack Della Maddalena.
Gall is coming off back to back losses over two years ago, so not only is he coming into this fight with a tough losing streak on his record, but those two years away are certainly muddying the waters a bit here. Anyway, Gall is mostly a submission artist, he somewhat thrives on the ground, although that would be a major gamble given the fact that Hafez is very wrestling oriented, and I mean, let's be honest, as long as a wrestler is in top control, it’s very rarely that they get submitted, and it’s not like Gall is some high level BJJ fighter with an impeccable record, he is just someone who has been given somewhat name-worthy opponents and that’s practically it. Gall's best chance to win this fight is on the ground, he needs to stick to his guns in this fight and be incredibly active on the ground or Hafez is going to shut down all of the submission attempts and just smother Gall in pressure. There is a possibility of Gall being somewhat effective on the feet, but a lot of his striking is fairly standard, often really using his grappling over anything else to get a win. One thing I don’t particularly like seeing when it comes to Gall’s striking is he is very still and perhaps too calm when he’s standing in front of someone, he doesn’t move his head a lot and his lead leg is often very out there and exposed, and whilst he does have quite a bit of power in his hands, I just don’t think he’s that capable of being a strong striker, his best skillset really is his BJJ. He is often quick to tie up his opponent or at least grab for a guillotine, and that guillotine will be there for him the more Hafez looks for takedowns, that will probably be the main threat coming from Gall for Hafez in my opinion.
Hafez has only one fight in the UFC but it was against one of the toughest opponents one can possibly debut against in Jack Della Maddalena, and whilst Hafez was simply outmatched on the feet, he persevered and still looked for those takedowns that he very much needed. It is the style of Hafez that will test Gall in this fight, because if Hafez attempted 20 takedowns against JDM who has exceptional takedown defence, I just think Hafez is going to have a bit of an easier time against Gall who is mostly a BJJ fighter who typically has terrible takedown defence, and I mean, this is something i’ve gone on and on about many times before, a good wrestler is a lot better than a good BJJ fighter, and whilst this is not exactly a case of Gall being a good BJJ fighter and Hafez being a good wrestler, that style clash is basically the same. Even if Gall does put up a good defence/offence on the ground, I do think Hafez and his grappling skillset is more than enough to deal with it. Hafez has gorgeous double leg takedowns, I mean, look at this beautiful takedown he used just seconds into his debut against JDM, he can do this over and over again, and realistically, he just needs to do this for the first two rounds, then he pretty much gets a win, but I think it’s going to be a relatively one sided wrestling attack by Hafez, and a few defensive submission attempts by Gall like guillotines or arm triangles off his back.
This is a great fight to be honest, I was rather impressed by the grit and determination of Hafez, he was getting torn up on the feet by JDM but still was willing to try and wrestle, resulting in a split decision loss, but an immeasurable amount of experience gained. I think Hafez gets a win here, but I only say that because I just don’t know how Gall is going to look coming off of a two year hiatus. We have sometimes seen insane improvements from fighters who take a few years off, so it’s possible Gall could look incredibly good, but based on what I know for “certain”, I think Hafez has this one.
Hafez via UD - (1/3)
Welterweight
Niko Price (+210) (15-7-0, 2 FLS) v Alex Morono (-260) (24-9-0, NS)
Morono is coming off a fairly competitive back and forth fight against McGee, and whilst he got the win, he didn’t look too great in there in all honesty. Morono does quite a few things with his striking that looks very funky and silly, he plods around a lot, his open elbow stance leaves him very open to being attacked, which often plays into his speed advantage in his fights as he can easily retaliate very quickly and land some thunderous punches. Morono is a very powerful boxer and he often uses a very quick left body or inside/outside leg kick with his boxing combinations just to add more sting to the sequence. However, as much as I find his striking style to be very unorthodox, what I do love about him is his grappling. Morono has ridiculously good BJJ, and whilst he doesn’t have the best takedown defence to take full control of his grappling ability, he is very, very good off his back. During his fight against Court McGee, he jumped the Guillotine, and whilst he didn’t successfully submit McGee, he was proactive in chasing an armbar off his back instead… It is the activity off the bottom that makes him a dangerous grappler and it’s always great to see. Now, Morono most likely has a fairly big power advantage here, and given that Price is coming off back to back KO losses, there is some question about whether or not his chin is durable enough to handle the right hand of Morono, and boy that right hand is a tough one to deal with.
Price is indeed coming off a KO loss against Robbie Lawler, and whilst it’s a tough loss for anyone, I do think that he still offers a great deal of threat for Morono, and whilst one might imagine the threat is going to be mostly his punching power, volume and other delicious words, I firmly believe that Price is going to chew up the legs of Morono very early and very often. Price is a fantastic leg kicker, he lands about one third of his strikes to the legs most of the time, and given that Morono is a very “plodding” stance fighter, I just cannot help but imagine that Price is going to land phenomenal leg kicks throughout this fight. However, the counter for leg kicks is, as we all should know by now, a power side attack, and if Price gets hit by that right hand, the momentum could shift very quickly. Now, if the fight ends up on the ground, I do think that Morono is going to swarm Price with overwhelming pressure and activity, given that Morono has excellent BJJ, and Price isn’t exactly that well versed on the ground.
As long as Price avoids the grappling and wrestling of Morono, he has a solid chance to win this fight, but I do think if he attacks the legs early and slows down the forward aggression of Morono, he could pull out an upset here, but that’s a bit of a big order given the threat of Morono’s quick one-two and his ability to utilise a wide range of attacks throughout all three rounds. This is very much a 50/50 fight though, I don’t feel confident at all in either fighter to win, and whilst I think Morono has more tools and more pathways to victory, Price could indeed surprise us this weekend.
Morono via UD - (1/3)
Welterweight
Phil Rowe (+135) (10-4-0, NS) v Jake Matthews (-165) (19-7-0, NS) - This is certainly a fascinating fight, but the first thing that screams at me is the size difference between Rowe and Matthews.
Rowe is coming off a back and forth, relatively slow and unimpressive fight against Magny, and whilst the fight took place in the clinch for the large majority of the fight, I did enjoy watching him use his reach by throwing that quick one-two down the pipe, and its that one-two that is going to be fairly problematic for Matthews given the fact that Rowe has an 8 inch reach advantage. I do believe that if Rowe keeps this fight clean, he has a major advantage here, but there is a glaring problem that I can see Matthews expose, and that’s the lack of defence that Rowe has. Whilst his ranged attacks are relatively effective, I do not like how hittable he is because he does not use footwork a lot, he just stands in front of his opponents target zone, kind of eating punches whilst trying to maintain his range. This is a problem for Rowe in this fight because Matthews is the type to push forward at a strong pace and let his own hands go effectively. Rowe has a phenomenal right hand, it is very accurate and thanks to the reach advantage, I don’t think he needs to show it off too much for it to be effective, he would just need to pop it out there in order to have it land. Now, Magny did make the fight gritty in the third round when they fought, and I did notice that whenever a pocket exchange is initiated, Rowe is on the receiving end of the harder shots, and that is primarily due to his lack of footwork and evasive movement in that particular bout, and whilst he did underperform during his fight against Magny, I do think he has the sharper, straighter punches that could be problematic for Matthews if Matthews is unable to close the distance and enter the pocket effectively.
Matthews is coming off a tough loss against Michael Morales, and it was in that fight that we saw Matthews get hit the most in his UFC career, receiving 84 significant strikes, although I think it’s fair to say that Matthews’ incredible defence allowed him to absorb those significant strikes without much serious damage. Matthews’ defence is actually one of the most impressive things I have seen, he shells up so effectively whilst leaving his stance open enough for aggressive retaliation. Everything Matthews throws comes with him immediately shelling up and moving off the centre line, he is impeccable with his defensive timing, and whilst he has been stumbled and rocked before, he has never really been in dire trouble. I do see Matthews using his overhand left followed by a quick duck followed by a straight right, that is his best entrance for the pocket and it is something he has used incredibly well against Morales. It is this exact style which makes his fight against Rowe a phenomenal match up because we have seen Rowe struggle when an opponent enters range, and I think Matthews is a lot more quick and explosive with forward momentum than Magny is. Plus, it helps that Matthews is such a gritty fighter, constantly moving forward and putting on strong pressure even if he gets hit, and that’s mostly due to his defence, he is just so good at absorbing and blocking damage whilst moving forward.
It honestly is a bit of a story between who can initiate their gameplan a bit better. For Rowe, he needs to be active at range, on the feet, he needs to use that quick one-two to freeze up Matthews and just eventually find the chin, because the chin is there, especially if feints are involved because Matthews does instinctively shell up a lot when something is coming his way, feint or otherwise. However, I do see Matthews making this a chaotic fight, especially since he loves to enter the range by weaving into the pocket, where Rowe is perhaps at his most uncomfortable. I got Matthews winning this one, I think his experience is going to shine here, as well as the fact that his defensive habits are going to be pivotal in mitigating a lot of the dangerous shots coming his way. I am not very confident in Matthews, I do see Rowe being dangerous at range still, but I just think Matthews ability to enter the pocket here is going to be the main story here.
Matthews via UD - (1/3)
Lightweight
Grant Dawson (#15) (-320) (20-2-1, NS) v Joe Solecki (+250) (13-4-0, NS)
Dawson is coming off a rough KO loss against Bobby Green, and that was always going to be one of the main outcomes for that fight since Green has excellent boxing, and thankfully for Dawson, that boxing or striking threat will be mostly gone here since Solecki isn’t at all a striker. Dawson is a very well rounded fighter who is incredibly effective on the ground, he is someone who is able to keep up a high pace of activity and still have enough cardio to be explosive, and I do think that the UFC is kind of making this fight a “comeback” fight for Dawson because I honestly don’t think Solecki has enough of an all round threat to make this interesting for Dawson. Dawson is going to employ the same strategy he has done in almost all of his fights, and that’s wrestle and control, he is so good at maintaining advantageous positions on the ground and the longer he is in top control, the worse it is for Solecki whose only chance to win this fight is to find a submission off his back, but since Dawson has ridiculously good wrestling and grappling himself, I think he can see any set up that Solecki attempts coming. On the feet I could say Dawson has the advantage here, but I don’t think a lot of the fight is going to take place on the feet, I think there’s going to be a lot of wrestling involved with Dawson being in the better positions.
Solecki is a sneaky fighter though, and whilst he has had some underwhelming fights, I do think the threat of his submissions are going to be fairly prevalent. I don’t think those submissions are going to land. Now, I will put a major disclaimer here saying I have struggled to find a lot of “working” tape for Solecki, and I have been unable to find what submission attempts he used against Alex Da Silva when they fought two years ago, I only bring this up because I believe Solecki is active off his back and if he is lucky he could at least make Dawson’s control time a bit more difficult, but I still don’t think Solecki has that kind of threat to catch Dawson in anything, so whilst he might be active off his back and in the guard, it’s going to be the kind of activity that results in Dawson just adjusting over and over.
I don’t really have much else to say about this one, Dawson is the better all round fighter and a much better wrestler, and I do think that whilst both fighters have outstanding BJJ, Solecki’s submission output could make it a bit gritty for Dawson, but this isn’t new for Dawson, Dawsons faced excellent grapplers before (Ismagulov, Madsen and Gordon to name his recent wins). Dawson should win this one in my opinion.
Dawson via UD - (2/3)
Middleweight
Roman Kopylov (-135) (12-3-0, NS) v Cesar Almeida (+115) (5-0-0, 5 FWS)
Kopylov is coming off a tough submission loss against Alexander Hernandez, and it was a competitive fight up until that point. One thing that I like about Kopylov is his diversity with striking, he is ridiculously quick on the feet for a Middleweight and that allows him to simply flick out anything and there’s some certainty that it’s going to land. He has a very quick and sneaky lead leg kick that he often uses to change target very quickly, usually kicking the leg then following up with a left straight, instead of what we see in typical combinations where the leg kick is the final attack in a sequence. Kopylov does get hit a lot, and he does leave his right hand a bit far from his face, which makes me think that Almeida and his fantastic left hook is going to be a major problem for Kopylov. However, Kopylov does have some grappling in his arsenal, although we have yet to see it in the UFC, but since he is a multiple time sambo champion, I can’t help but think that he is going to be using his wrestling a fair bit in this fight, especially since he is facing one hell of a dangerous kickboxer, it would only make some sense, right? Now, on the feet, there are two attacks that Kopylov is going to put a major emphasis on, that is the liver body kick (left roundhouse) and the left straight, those two attacks are going to be his most damaging and I do wonder how effective it will be in slowing down Almeida.
Almeida is coming off a strong debut win against Budka, and whilst Budka isn’t exactly a tough debut, he still managed to test Almeida a little bit on the ground. However, as I highlighted in my last write up about Almeida, his defensive grappling is very, very good, he has adapted exceptionally well to MMA. Now, Almeida is one hell of a dangerous kickboxer, he is stupendously sharp on the feet and he is tight with his combinations, and it is for that reason alone that I think Kopylov needs to wrestle in this fight, use his Sambo to mix it up and make it frustrating for Almeida. Now, Almeida is outstanding at all ranges, but I think he excels in the pocket where he can land his tight left hook, a left hook that’s eerily similar to Pereira, it’s just a clean left hook that has no read and a lot of power behind it, and I think Kopylov is going to have to be the first one to start the action in order to not let Almeida settle in to throw that hook.
This is going to be a fantastic fight though, and honestly a fascinating match up for Kopylov who, up until this moment, only faced standard MMA strikers who throw big power with not that much technique, so this is going to be fascinating. Going with the underdog here, but it will absolutely not be a high confidence pick.
Almeida via KO R2 - (1/3)
Main Card
Welterweight
Randy Brown (-155) (18-5-0, 2 FWS) v Elizeu Zaleski (+130) (24-7-1, 1D/2FWS) - This is going to be absolutely awesome.
Brown is coming off a fantastic KO over highly touted kickboxing veteran Muslim Salikhov, and despite the fact that Brown did defeat Salikhov, it did not come without a lot of damage coming his way. Brown suffers a little bit from what a lot of longer and taller fighters suffer from, and that's a lack of fundamental striking defence, his range and reach is his defence, if someone can penetrate that reach difference and enter the pocket, then Brown is a vulnerable target in that moment. However, when Brown is at range and he’s in the zone, he is incredible. His long jab is his best weapon, he uses it to both damage his opponent and to set up subsequent punches, and these shots aren’t always the same, there are so many permutations of that same set up, as soon as you see Brown throw more than one jab, you know he is setting up a clean combination. However, he has shown a bit of a weakness and that’s his legs, he is so easy to leg kick due to his height and size, his lead leg is ripe for the taking and there is little doubt in my mind that Zaleski is going to chew up those legs early, as that was the game plan for Salikhov before that one-one-two combination came his way at ridiculous speeds.
Zaleski is coming off a draw against Rinat Fakhretdinov, and very early on we saw Zaleski struggle with the pressure and power of Fakhretdinov. That pressure and power is not exactly the style of fighting that Brown utilises, Brown is a lot more patient and systematic with his approach, never pressuring his opponent but keeping a constant pace of a wide sort of attacks. Zaleski has ridiculous power in his hands though and he has the speed and explosiveness to enter the pocket and land those dangerous punches that are going to land whenever he is going to enter the pocket during this bout. However, Zaleski does not have the best defence, he often leaves his hands a bit low, and whilst that’s great for an explosive overhand or a quick burst of action that’s hard to read, I don’t think that’s a good kind of defence when you’re fighting someone who has a 5 inch reach advantage and a 4 inch height advantage. Zaleski is not a safe fighter, he is here to perform and look for highlights, he is an incredible finisher, but he is also reckless, he is also susceptible to getting hurt, and whilst he did exceptionally well against Fakhretdinov, that was mostly due to Fakhretdinov’s predictable attacks. Now, Fakhretdinov threw the same attacks over and over, and since that same attack was the one that dropped Zaleski, he kept using that same thing. In order to be effective in any combat sport, especially against a veteran, you need to have different combinations, and that’s exactly what Brown has, he has such a wide range of attacks, including his very snappy front and head kicks, so there is little doubt that Zaleski is going to be somewhat overwhelmed on the feet if Brown finds his groove early on.
This is a fantastic fight, perhaps one of the best fights on this card, I expect there to be fireworks and a lot of adjustments as the rounds go on, but I do think that Brown is going to get a win here, his reach and height advantage gives him a lot of additional set ups and effective strikes, those front kicks up the middle could be effective given the loose shell of Zaleski, and those long one-two punches that Brown uses are just beautiful to watch. This is going to be awesome. Now, before I get to the prediction… Zaleski has the right tools to make this messy enough to get a win here, so there will be an alt bet here for a Zaleski Points/KO Double Chance.
Brown via UD - (1/3)
Heavyweight
Jailton Almeida (#6) (-300) (20-3-0, NS) v Alexandr Romanov (#14) (+240) (17-2-0, NS)
Almeida is coming off a KO loss against Blaydes just a few months ago, and I mean, losing to someone like Blaydes isn’t too big of a deal since Blaydes is a genuine talent in the division, but I do wonder how Almeida has improved since that loss. Almeida is a very grapple heavy fighter who has torn through a division full of unathletic brawlers, and now he is facing fighters who have a very similar style and skill set that he has, which makes this fight all that more interesting because I have been very high on Romanov in recent years, mostly due to his style being unique in the heavyweight division. Almeida has ridiculous cardio for someone at heavyweight, and whilst you could argue that his lay and pray style does not really reflect great cardio… how often are we going to see Blaydes get taken down 9 of 13 times. 13 fucking attempts against someone who has one of the best wrestling backgrounds in the UFC at heavyweight? Almeida’s wrestling is going to be a problem for a lot of people, even as we move up the division, but it comes at a cost. Almeida is very one dimensional, he has a heavy reliance on those takedowns, and if he doesn’t get them, you get a repeat of what Blaydes did to him. On the feet I don’t see a lot happening, Almeida has shown to be a bit more free with his boxing, only to open up his opponent to takedowns, and that could very well be the gameplan for Almeida this weekend, box a little then shoot for a takedown, and it could be effective against Romanov who is a bit more one dimensional than Almeida.
Romanov has somewhat stagnated a tiny bit in his career, with a not-very-recent win over Blagoy Ivanov, and for the most part it was a strong showing of his wrestling ability and strength, however I do question the quality of opponent that Romanov has defeated in comparison to Almeida’s… It seems that Almeida has been given the more star-power names whereas Romanov has been climbing the ranks in a more natural way. Anyway, I like Romanov, but I genuinely don’t think he is going to fare well against someone like Almeida. If an old 40+ year old in Espino can out wrestle Romanov, there is no doubt that a younger and perhaps more athletic fighter in Almeida can replicate that same kind of style and just overwhelm Romanov. Romanov is a strong competitor though so I think there might be enough resistance in the wrestling department to make this fight a long, gruelling one.
A very fun clash of similar styles here, which I find pretty important since Almeida is a very impressive fighter, and I think the more we see him take on opponents with a similar style to himself, the more we get to see what he is truly capable of. I got Almeida winning this one, it should be a fun fight!
Almeida via UD - (2/3)
Middleweight
Kevin Holland (-250) (25-11-0, 2 FLS) v Michal Oleksiejczuk (+200) (19-7-0, NS) - Oh man do I love this fight.
Holland is coming off back to back losses against JDM and MVP (Jack Della Maddalena and Michael “Venom” Page”), and whilst back to back losses could easily make people dismiss Holland, I do want to bring up how competitive his fight against JDM was, and how durable and tough he was when MVP was taking his soul in what was such a brilliant display of unorthodox kickboxing. Holland has always been a game fighter, he has a chin that allows him to hang in there with the hardest hitters, and he is genuinely a very skilled fighter who has outstanding boxing and such an expert at range and luring his opponent into an angle that gives him an advantage. Holland is coming back up to 185 after a fun stint at 170, and since Oleksiejczuk has very little wrestling threat, I am excited to see if we witness Holland be himself once again, because prior to his losses against Brunson and Vettori at 185, he was a dangerous fighter. Holland has a substantial reach advantage coming into this fight which is only going to shine even more when Oleksiejczuk tries to box him in a typical boxing range. Holland is also a fairly experienced grappler, he has quite a few submissions on his record and I do think that if he wants the path of least resistance when fighting Oleksiejczuk, he is going to look for that takedown and find a submission. However, that’s not how Holland fights, he is a crowd pleaser and is most likely going to want to keep this fight standing so he can land his quick combinations at range and just put away Oleksiejczuk that way.
Oleksiejczuk is coming off a tough sub loss against Pereira, and I honestly learnt nothing else about him during that fight, he was still looking for those heavy punches, and he still had somewhat bad takedown defence. I do think that Oleksiejczuk’s best chance to win this fight is to put Holland away, but it’s just a bit of a tall order because if Holland couldn’t get knocked out by the ridiculous power of MVP, I don’t think Oleksiejczuk is going to achieve that success that MVP tried to chase. The reach disadvantage is going to be fairly prominent here too, it’s going to make Oleksiejczuk rush in a little bit with some explosive forward movement in order to cover the distance, but Holland is so good at crowding punches and being hard to hit that I just don’t think Oleksiejczuk is going to land too cleanly on Holland.
With that said, I’ve always been a fan of Holland so maybe there is a bit of bias here, but I think Holland wins this one, i’m just mostly curious to see how he looks when he returns to 185 this weekend.
Holland via KO R2 - (2/3)
Co-Main Event
Middleweight
Sean Strickland (#2) (-205) (28-6-0, NS) v Paulo Costa (#8) (+170) (14-3-0, NS)
Strickland is coming off a very competitive fight against Dricus Du Plessis, and whilst he arguably won that fight, what I was most impressed with was the little amount of damage he absorbed, even by one of the most powerful punchers in DDP, and if Strickland could absorb that little amount of damage from DDP, I can only think that he is going to be relatively fine against Costa. Strickland does struggle a little bit in turning up the pressure when pressure is needed, he does have a bit of a predictable style which has been talked about for ages, but it’s a style that works, and if he sets a high pace of steady volume and walks Costa back throughout the fight, he can easily win this fight. The only thing that Strickland needs to be careful of is the power of Costa coming back his way.
Costa is coming off a tough loss against Whittaker, and whilst he did display that power late into the first round, he struggled to keep up with the speed and footwork of Whittaker. Now, the good news for Costa is that Stricklands footwork only involves walking forward, and occasionally taking a step back, there is no tricky blitzes or anything, so the striking success rate for Costa should be at least more stable numerically in the second and third if he doesn’t succumb to the pressure and slow down in those two rounds. However, I don’t trust Costa’s gas tank that much, he may be a physical specimen but the power he throws with is unsustainable for a three round back and forth, and it’s certainly not the first time Strickland has fought a powerhouse. My main concern however is the judges scorecards, and I know its a bit weird to talk about judging, but when you have big action fighters throwing things that aren’t super effective, the visuals reflect effectiveness, regardless of the supposed damage received, will the judges this fight see Costa throw heavy, despite not landing cleanly (which is hard to do against Strickland) and give the rounds to Costa? If that is the case, then a Costa Decision certainly should be in your books, but I just think that Strickland and his 4 inch reach advantage is going to be too effective in stifling the aggression of Costa.
I ultimately have Strickland winning this fight, I never really have been big on Costa, he’s a fun fighter to watch, but when you have Strickland taking away a lot of that fun by marching down a lot of his opponents, you get a Costa that struggles to keep up a bit. This is going to be a low confidence pick due to the judging factor, I have a weird feeling about this one lol.
Strickland via UD - (1/3)
Main Event
Lightweight Championship Bout
Islam Makhachev (c) (-480) (25-1-0, 13 FWS) v Dustin Poirier (#5) (+360) (30-8-0, NS)
Makhachev is one of the most well rounded fighters in the UFC at the moment. Everything he does is with clean technique and outstanding timing, and he has the cardio to keep up a ridiculously high pace for 5 rounds. There is no doubt in my mind that he is going to be using his brilliant wrestling and grappling to slowly dismantle Poirier, because Poirier’s grappling is rudimentary at best, it does not hold a candle to Makhachevs wrestling. There is a lot of discussion about Poirier landing a guillotine on Makhachev, but it’s all hype and hope at this rate because if he could not land a guillotine on BSD, he probably isn’t going to land one against a high level wrestler in Makhachev. Makhachev is a few steps behind when it comes to boxing though, I do not see him being successful against Poirier on the feet, Poirier’s striking is sublime, it is the most brilliant close range striking that you’ll probably ever see in the LW division, those tight hooks he uses is something nasty.
Poirier is on his last legs career wise, there is quite a lot weighing on him for this one as it is his final chance to get a belt, so that’s already a lot of pressure, but I guess he thrives in this kind of environment. Poirier is going to have to contend with the almost instant wrestling pressure and pace of Makhachev, and given that Poirier is not at all a wrestler, he is going to get taken down, he got taken down quite a few times when he fought a very depleted BSD, and now he’s coming up against a very physically ready Makhachev, I just don’t see Poirier doing too well in the wrestling department against Makhachev. However, when it comes to the striking, Poirier holds all the cards here, he has incredible timing with his lead hook and if he times it right, that uppercut could be disastrous for Makhachev. It’s going to be the hook and the uppercut that catch Makhachev, but if Makhachev can survive those attacks and get his hands wrapped around Poirier, it’s not going to matter if Poirier rocks Makhachev in the process, Makhachev is insane in top position.
That’s the story here, Poirier’s boxing versus Makhachevs wrestling and grappling. I got Makhachev winning this one, but it is always a good idea to sprinkle a bit of money on a Poirier KO, especially since he’s such a big underdog here.
Makhachev via Sub R2 - (2/3)
And that's it!
Primary Parlay - Price/Morono o2.5 or GTD + Dawson/Solecki o2.5 or GTD + Almeida/Kopylov ITD + Makhachev/Poirier ITD
Secondary Parlay - Price/Morono o2.5 or GTD + Almeida/Romanov R3 Starts Yes + Strickland/Costa o2.5 + Makhachev/Poirier u3.5 or ITD
Locks: Perez (optional), Dawson, Almeida, Holland and Makhachev.
Prediction Accuracy for 2024: 64.3%
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Hello again everybody!
Before we get started on today's post the current voting for Serperior is the closest vote yet! Votes for A tier and for B tier are currently deadlocked! With plenty of time left to vote on that one it's way too close to call yet. (Reminder that if you haven't voted on that one yet you can click the link below and scroll down the comments to find a link to the vote or sort the Sub by Daily Tiering/Voting Posts to find it as well)
So with that being said Serperior is certainly headed to either A or B tier but we can't really be sure of which one yet. If by some miraculous coincidence the voting time ends and it's a straight up tie the number of votes for S tier vs the number of votes for C and F tier will be the deciding tiebreaker as opposed to doing a whole second tiebreaker vote.
(Please note that this voting/tiering is centered around Classic as after a certain point in Endless only about 5 Pokemon and 2 abilities are truly viable.)
So current tiers are:
S tier - Garganacl, Cloyster, Skeledirge, Gholdengo, Tinkaton
A tier - Gyarados/Mega, VenusauMega/Dyna, Aegislash, Corviknight/Dyna, Excadrill, GardevoiMega, Toxapex, ScizoMega, GengaMega/Dyna, Delphox, Blastoise/Mega/Dyna, Blaziken/Mega, Swampert/Mega, Empoleon
B tier - Kanto-Persian/Dynamax Kanto-Meowth, Weavile, Starmie, Rhyperior, Quagsire, Mamoswine, Whimsicott, Aggron/Mega, Infernape, Alolan-Decidueye, Johto-Typhlosion, Torterra
C tier - Linoone, Meganium
F tier - Dustox
With that being said let's get to today's vote!
Today is day 42 of tier voting (6 straight weeks of tier voting!) and today we are on to the last of the Fire/Fighting type starters. Emboar is an interesting Pokemon, it's clear GameFreak wanted to distinguish it from the other 2 Fire/Fighting starters by giving it a different function and stat spread, however this didn't necessarily do it any favors. Emboar's stats are arguably the most infamous part about it aside from its redundant typing after 3 straight generations of Fire/Fighting type starters. Its stat spread kinda looks like someone just rolled some dice and went with whatever they landed on as it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. It has a pretty good HP stat for a starter, but awful defenses, meaning it isn't actually very bulky. It has a good Attack stat, but an equally terrible Speed stat meaning it isn't going to outspeed much of anything to get its attacks off first either. Its movepool certainly favors physical attacks but for some reason they put a bunch of unnecessary points towards its Special Attack which would've helped a lot more in its Defenses or Speed. Its Hidden Ability does synergize with its movepool (both natural and egg moves) to strengthen its strongest moves but it needs its Passive Ability unlocked to not simultaneously hurt itself from these moves. Even with its Passive, Rock Head, to prevent it from taking recoil damage it still suffers from its really rough Speed stat meaning it doesn't have much longevity, also Rock Head doesn't prevent crash damage, meaning it can still take half its max HP of recoil damage if it misses with its Egg move Axe Kick. Its Egg Moves overall certainly help it as well with another coverage option to utilize its Hidden Ability and Passive Ability synergizing as well as one of the best boosting moves in the game in Victory Dance, and Drain Punch as a way to try to increase its survivability since it lacks any other way to heal itself. Without egg moves it struggles greatly with no recovery, only a few utility options and the strange choice to not give it Swords Dance to boost itself (which may actually have helped it more than Victory Dance as an egg move to give it a real glass cannon feel). Put it all together and this is certainly one of the Pokemon of all time.
(Also here is the post with rules for voting/tiering posts and a little more explanation about them in general: https://www.reddit.com/pokerogue/s/0LNZhPPzR9 Links to past votes can all be found here as well in comments added to the OP with each new vote)
And here is a quick reminder of what each tier generally means:
S tier: Top tier, can make or break your entire run, essentially the cream of the crop
A tier: really strong but not quite top tier, maybe slightly outclassed or has a slight weakness holding it back
B tier: solid choices that can make it to your endgame team, might be reliant on team composition to truly function well or might just be outclassed as well
C tier: usually early-mid game Mons, ones you don't really want to take to end game if you can avoid it, usually pretty decently glaring weakness but something redeeming enough to keep from F tier
F tier: no reason to use in end game unless you're doing it for a meme/joke
Abstain/No Opinion: this will be a voting option mostly just for Pokemon people haven't unlocked/used to their full potential yet. If Abstaining votes outvote each individual tier then the Pokemon will be tabled for the time being and another vote will open up for it later (can mostly see this happening with Legendaries).
*
Emboar
Type: Fire/Fighting
Mega: No
Dynamax: No
Starter cost {Tepig}: 3
Possible Egg moves: Axe Kick, Volt Tackle, Drain Punch, Victory Dance
Biomes: Volcano
Abilities: Blaze
Hidden Ability: Reckless
Passive Ability: Rock Head - prevents this Pokemon from taking recoil damage (does not prevent crash damage from moves such as Axe Kick missing)
Evolution: Tepig evolves into Pignite at level 17. Pignite evolves into Emboar at level 36.
Base stats:
HP - 110
Attack - 123
Defense - 65
Sp. Attack - 100
Sp. Defense - 65
Speed - 65
Learnset by level up: Arm Thrust, Ember, Tackle, Tail Whip, Defense Curl, Flame Charge, Smog, Rollout, Take Down, Heat Crash, Assurance, Flamethrower, Head Smash, Roar, Flare Blitz
Notable TMs: Mud-Slap, Protect, Trailblaze, Fire Spin, Facade, Sunny Day, Dig, Brick Break, Zen Headbutt, Bulk Up, Body Slam, Fire Punch, Thunder Punch, Rest, Sleep Talk, Grass Knot, Poison Jab, Stomping Tantrum, Rock Slide, Body Press, Iron Head, Will-O-Wisp, Heat Wave, Heavy Slam, Fire Blast, Wild Charge, Earthquake, Stone Edge, Overheat, Close Combat, Solar Beam, Gyro Ball, Knock Off, Scald, Double-Edge, Temper Flare, Curse, Hard Press, Work Up, Swagger, Double Team
*
Tomorrow's vote: Unovan-Samurott!
Pokemon on the radar for voting very soon: Flygon, Leavanny, Wormadam-Trash, Gastrodon, Clodsire, Staraptor, Klefki, Kanto-Raichu, Gallade/Mega, Comfey, Araquanid, Crobat, Malamar, Ferrothorn, Walrein, Gliscor, Roserade, Vileplume, Minior, Hitmonchan, Bibarel, Chandelure, Archaludon/Dynamax Duraludon, Alakazam/Mega, Flamigo, Volcarona, Barbaracle, Butterfree/Dyna, Beedrill/Mega, Mawile/Mega, Drednaw/Dyna, Annihilape, Cramorant, Aerodactyl/Mega, Glimmora, Heatran, Phione, Ogerpon, Tapu Koko, Dialga/Primal, Galarian-Zapdos, Regieleki, Regidrago, Zacian, Zamazenta, Rayquaza/Mega, Latias/Mega, Latios/Mega, Ho-Oh, Volcanion, Toxtricity/Dyna, Carbink, Porygon-Z, Cinccino, Snorlax/Dyna, Wishiwashi
(Other requests will be added to this list and this list is not necessarily in order)
Happy voting!
View Poll

I've posted a few times here recently, and I've scoured tons of methods that different posts have recommended, lysine, zinc, c, B12, folic, multivitamin, sls free toothpaste, great oral hygiene, avoiding problematic foods (spicy, acidic, sharp/hard) the whole nine. But, ever since April, I've had a consistent outbreak of at least one or more ulcers at the back of my throat. Last week I enjoyed 2-3 days sore-free before they came back, and now to my horror I have an outbreak of around 3 I think. What am I doing wrong? I have a doctor's appointment set up to hopefully demand some blood work to check for autoimmune disorders or deficiencies or something, anything.

I have a good friend, I’m glad to have her, but yesterday she was talking about all the things she wanted to do and try in her life. Kind of silly things, like: try wrestling/sign up for wrestling camp, perform a puppet show, places she wants to visit. As I was listening to her talk I realized I don’t have any hopes or dreams left. I’m pretty proud of myself like I haven’t given up on everything despite losing my partnesomeone I was about to marry/someone I was trying to have a child with. and that pretty much shut down the possibility of me having a child, because I’m 40, I already have a low egg count for my age, i can’t do it alone because I have to have a c-section, I can’t adopt because I’m a single recovering addict and they’d just never let me.
So I haven’t given up, I packed up my life and started a new one and I made some good choices and I do nice things and I’m working a job I really like and find meaningful, I have a little garden … but I have no goals besides make it through the next month, take care of my dog, go to the dentist, access PTSD treatment, etc. nice things come up i guess. it’s been almost a year since he died, very suddenly and expectedly. maybe it hurts too much to have dreams or think too hard about the future. I just remember having a lot of goals when I was younger and it’s weird to have none now

It obviously must be slang. It's in this song at 2:32. Multiple lyric websites have translated it as "that's why I work hard". Could anyone please explain how this comes down to this meaning? And does it mean anything else if I used in other contexts? Or are the websites incorrect. Thanks!

Summary During a eventfull evening with the Glenwood pack. Seer is chased by their mate Beth as pay back for them leaving her on the ladder alone. When things go wrong but may have a positive outcome Notes My first story so I'm not very good at this. I wrote this on Google docs. It's a fan fic/AU See the end of the work for more notes
Seer turns into a shifter
TW: Blood Violence I imagine myself as Seer in this story. Seer stands near the front door to the den during Thanks giving when they suddenly hear. Beth: "where is my mate" Seer dashes out the door and runs into the woods with wolf Beth right behind them. While in the trees Beth catches up and jumps on Seers back pinning them to the ground. She pushes her paws into Seers body nut since she's upset she uses too much of her strength and blood begins to gush out of their wound. Horrified Beth jumps off before frantically turning back. She begins to Shreak Beth: Claire Claire. Claire stands in her living room with Knight and Genieve thinking that its best to let Seer and Beth sort of their conflict. Geneve hears Beth screaming and smells Seers blood. She uses her Valp abilities to speed into the woods with Calire and Knight following. They run right into the woods and see Seer lying on the ground with Beth kneeling next to them her tears soaking the soil. Claire kneels down and examines Seers wound while Knight and Evie try to comfort Beth as she falls I to their arms. Knight: what happened. Beth tries to explain but her sobs get in the way. Evie: don't worry Beth Claire can heal them she's a mighty blood mage. It's going to be OK. Claire: they've lost a lot of blood she says hardly keeping her voice steady. Even if I heal them it might be too late. Evie: what if we give them a blood transfusion that would work. Knight: but then they'd be a shifter too like us. Claire: it should be their choice but it's not like we can ask. We can't use my blood I'll need my strength to make sure their body accepts the new blood Knight: use mine I can take it. I'm strong enough. And they'd do it for me. Beth shakes her head Use mine I'm the reason there in this mess and they're my mate. Claire agrees and she uses her magic to transfer some of Beth's blood into Seer Beth: OH God I hope this works. She sobs. W we c c can't lose anyone else she cries harder thinking about that night and all the blood that was spilled. Evie gently picks up Seer and carries them up stairs into one of the spare rooms and places them in a soft bed. Seer lies there fast asleep with Beth right next to them staring at them thinking replaying the accident over and over again. "All this because they didn't hold a ladder. And off corse they're going to blame themselves for this" Claire: it's not your fault Beth or theirs sometimes things happen that we can't control. All of a sudden there's the sound of loud footsteps charging up the stairs and Simon barges into the room. Simon: Knight told me what happened. Claire are they going to be ok. What can I do? Claire: they should be fine we've given them a blood transfusion so their going to be a shifter now. Can you go get some food and water for Beth she's going to need it after the blood she's lost. Simon nods and walks away down the stairs. And returns with food. Beth tries to eat but it's like chewing carpet. She continues to stare at Seers wound and their face. Along with Simeon. He feels fatherly love for Seer thinking back to the time he welcomed them into their pack and how he hugged them so tight he thought he had broken Seers rib. Simeon: people always look so young when they sleep. All the stress melts away. Especially for them since their visons make them worried alot. He Says Beth nods. Theyll shift before they wake up since their body is still getting used to its new blood you'll have to calm them down and explain honey. Claire finishes healing Seers wound and yawns. "I need to go to bed ill need my strength back incase anything goes wrong when Seer wakes up in the morning." Claire hugs Beth before walking out of the room with Simeon following The next day Seers body shifts into their wolf form and they begin the stir and suddenly wake and begin to thrash around and yelp with pain. Beth quickly moves foreword and pushes Seer back down onto the bed Beth: "ssssshhhhh beautiful it's OK it's OK. I'm here I'm here.” Seer starts to calm down and make snarling sounds of confusion. While trying to take deep breaths. They start to roll over and fall out of the bed onto the floor. Beth rubs their hand and pulls Seers head onto her lap. "Beautiful it's OK. You're not dreaming you're a shifter like me now. After last night we had to give you some of my blood since you lost too much. So now you're like me. You'll always be a shifter but don't worry you'll be able to turn onto your human form. After while. I'll reach you how once you get some of your strength back." Seer begins to look around the room. Beth knows Seer well enough that she knows they're looking for the others even through they can't talk as a wolf Beth: "the Claire Simeon Knight and Evie are here but they're keeping their distance since having too many people around might be overwhelming for you. " I I'm so sorry beautiful so so sorry" she begins to tear up again and Seer whimpers and rubs their head against her trying to calm her down and tell her it's not her fault. Beth takes a deep breath. And starts to calm herself. You know Isla is going to be jealous that you shifted before her. Says Simon walking onto the room and bending down to rub Seers muzzle. Beth: Simeon you're not supposed to be in here yet. You'll overwhelm them. Simeon: oh relax they're fine right he says looking at Swer who nods weakly and tries to smile despite having sharper teeth. Beth: that's right beautiful try to rest. Now. In a couple of days we'll gather the whole pack and go for a run. It'll be amazing gliding through the woods. I still remember the first time I ran as a wolf I felt so free and powerful. Seer and Beth both climb back into the bed together and fall onto a deep sleep holding eachother in a loving embrace.
The morning after
Chapter Summary Seer wakes up the morning after Thanksgiving and has to get used to their new form and abilities
Seers eyes flutter open. There still in their wolf form and look over and see human Beth snuggled up next to them. Feeling her warmth. They feel excited to know what's it's like for Beth when she shifts to comfort them in the night when their visons make their anxiety flaire up. Seer lifts up their head and sniffs the air through their nose. And they feel completely overwhelmed by the seats that are in the room from their own smell to Beth's to the cotton sheets and blanket and traces of Claire and Simeon. Their sudden movements wake up Beth who groans sleepily still tired from her sleepless night watching Seer. She gently reaches up and strokes Seers muzzle. Beth: “I know it's overwhelming but you'll get used to it with time. Try to breathe slowly” Seer sticks our their tounge between their teeth like a puppy dog and makes a big show of panting slowly. Beth is torn between being annoyed with her mates sarcasm and being glad they're in a good enough mode to be a smartass. She giggles. As they stare at eachother with the loving gaze they always use when they share a moment. Seer always knew that they would face any challenge for Beth regardless of its their visons or being a shifter. It is always worth it. Not that Seer minds being a shifter they're over the moon about it. And they think about all the things that they'll be able to do with their pack. Their family. Claire walks into the room then. She smiles seeing Beth and Seer together. Somethings never change she thinks to herself. Claire: “Glad to see you're well rested. Through now it's the middle of the night. The rest of the packs here. Through they're outside near the bonfire. They want to see you. You up for it? Beth looks over at Seer who nods excitedly before gently jumping off the bed careful not to scratch Beth with their claws or land on Claire. They stretch their muscles and shake their fur like a wet dog. Beth: “don't worry beautiful I'll brush you later. Before I teach you to change back. Seer wags their tail at Beth before they start to slowly walk out of the room still Abita unsure since their on four legs. They start to walk through the rooms door way. It's a tight squeeze. Beth: “suck it in Beatiful.” And giggles. Seer gets through the door and turns around tencing up their muscles to show off. Before they keep walking down the hallway. On the way to the stairs they walk past a mirror. They stop and walk back to stare at their reflection. They strike a pose. Thinking “oooooo hello” and they wink at their own image. Claire: “Come on Seer before I have Simeon Knight and Evie carry you down the stairs like a disobedient puppy.” Seer walks down the stairs carefully not wants to do wolf matrix move outtakes on the way down. They reach the bottom of the stairs and put their paws on the front door like a dog needing to go outside. Claire walks up and opens the door. Knowing the wind must have blown it shut. Seer walks to the front of the den with Beth at their side and Claire not far behind. They each feel the chilly air Travel up their bodied. The pack is waiting for them excitedly around the bonfire keeping warm. Simon stands up and walks over to Seer as they approach the fire rejoicing in the warmth it provides. Simon places a plate infront of Seer. Simon: “your first meal as a wolf my child.” Seer loves the taste especially now that their senses are stronger and they wolf it down while Simon pets them like a house pet. The rest of the pack continues to stare at Seer in awe of their new form. Isla runs up to Seer and hugs them. They bend down and hug them back as she seems to sink into Seers fur. The wind picks up blowing more of Isla scent into Seers nose and again they are overwhelmed by it along with the scents of the rest of the pack and the forest. Seer shakes their head to try and clear. Isla: Ooops sorry Seer I forgot it can be overwhelming. It'll be thr same for me when I first shift. Seer yelps excited to Isla and steps forward before giving her a huge lick across her face. Like a house dog. “Ewww” says Isla as Allen and Hazel laugh along with the rest of the pack. Tristan: “You should have seen that coming kid” he says before giggling. Isla: “has Ranger stuck a dog collar on you lately Triscuit” Beth: “Yeah Triscuit Kakis told me you need to stop getting caught out in the woods” Claire: “Speaking of the woods who wants to go for a run with me Seer and Beth tonight?” Hazel and Allen refuse since they want to stay with Isla since she needs to sleep. Ro and Tristan want to stay behind since they want to start working on some overalls for Seer. Simeon: I'll go. I want to be with my child on this special occasion. Claire: alright let's go change into our overalls. Me and Simon will go first. Beth: I'll stay with you beautiful until the others get back. You shouldn't be alone right now this is still alot for you. When Claire and Simeon get back I'll go get changed” Simeon and Claire walk away. Leaving Beth and Seer alone in the forest. Beth: you're doing so well beautiful. I'm so proud of you. And despite what happened I'm glad I can share such a big part of my life with you. I'm also glad that the others are happy as well. Through they already adored you. Seer wags their tail. And thinks “It's not just me who did well its also Claire she healed me and you for being so strong through everything you been through both before and now. You're so strong love plus you're hot headed and stubborn which also helps. Claire and Simeon walk back outside and Beth strokes Seer one more time before walking towards the den to change into her overalls.
Seers first run
Chapter Summary As a right of passage of being a shifter Seer now gets to run through the woods of the pack territory with their mate
After Claire Beth and Simeon shift into their wolf forms. Beth steps forward towards Seer and rubs her muzzle against them. Seer feels the warmth of her body and hot breath against their face as well as love. Despite them still not used to being in their wolf form it feels oddly right. Like now they belong Suddenly Seer hears a soft voice in their head. Which for a normal person would feel unusual but to them they feel oddly used to it since they hear voices when they have their visons. Beth: “Beautiful can you hear me? Seer nods their head looking at Beth. Remember that she once mentioned that shifters can speak to each other telepathy when they're in their wolf forms. Beth: “You can talk to me as well like this. But only when you direct your through towards me” Seer: “What about Claire and Simeon? She they alright?” Beth: “yeah their fine. They're just keeping quiet since they don't want to overwhelm you. Start moving forward when you're ready. You don't need to rush we're going at your pace. And we'll be right here with you. Now try and concentrate on your senses what you hear and smell.” Seer raises their head and takes a deep breath of the chilly night air. They are amazed at all the things they smell. From the animals hiding away in the night along with the smells of soil and decaying plants. They perk up their ears and the wilderness comes alive with sound. Like a musical of nature. They hear the steps of animals dashing along the ground to the rustle of leaves blowing in the cold wind to the sounds of night insects chirping away. Seer is amazing by all these new experiences and is awed at how much they missed back when they were only a human with their dull senses. Beth: “Amazing isn't it? So much order and chaos all mixed together in a wonderful display of nature and beauty. Just like you” Seer feels energy and power surging through their muscles and they take off running into the wilderness with Beth right next to them and Claire and Simeon behind them. The forest feels dense but it seems to part ways allowing them through like it's molding itself into a passage just for them. Seer feels amazing as they rush through trees still hearing the beauty of their surroundings and basking in the smell and sights that dance in their mind. Seer feels a new feeling. They feel free. They've let go of all the stresses of being human. From the endless work days to the mundane chooses that always demand attention. The wind rushes over their body as they move making them feel apart of the incredible environment around them. It feels like heaven as they continue to rush into the night.
Playtime as a wolf
Chapter Summary Seer plays in the woods with their pack mates
Trigger warning: Violence (not sure if wrestling counts but it's worth mentioning) The wolves comtinue runbingbthrough the forest the moonlight shimmering through the trees. Suddenly they arrive in a wide clearing. As if nature had opened itself up so that they could stand in the open. They stare up at the star filled sky the moonlight glistening in their wide eyes as they bask in the beauty of the universe. Seer: “Amazing isn't it. They say In awe still staring up transfixed. Beth: “Yes it is. But it still has nothing on you beautiful” she says softly and warmly stating at her make as the moonlight glistens off there Grey fur. Seer turns back to Beth and they look into eachothers eyes with the same wonder and love that they did on the night that Beth confessed her love and Seer returned her passion. Claire and Simeon walk up to the two love birds in furcoats. And stretch their bodies still filler with energy from their run. Claire: you want to wrestle Beth? Since we didn't get a change too earlier at thanks giving. She says excitedly eying up her pack mate. Beth: maybe another time. I don't feel up to. Suddenly she jumps at Claire catching her off guard and they begin to roll along the dirt covered ground Beth taking a early advantage. Simeon walks up to Seer slowly and calmly. Amusement in his eyes as he watches his girls battle it out. Seer: it feels different watching now. Like I'm apart of the action that makes sense. Simeon: Yeah. It's pretty fun. Plus it sometimes gives us a change to practice healing magic. He chuckles happily. You and I can go if you feel comfortable. Through it wouldn't be a fair fight since I'm bigger than you.” Seer: Even so I could still take you they say confidently. Alright on the count of three They square up in front of each other and Seer count one, two then they take a tip from Beth and jump on Simeon and they both begin to rustle together laughing the whole time. But it ends with Simeon on top of Seer his bigger form giving him a edge. Seer: Beth Claire help our dad is too heavy for me they say in a joking pleading voice. Claire and Beth both suddenly stop and fake glare at Simeon. Simeon: “ooooo scary” they say in a fake scared voice that trembles mockingly Claire: “How about you pick on someone your own size Simeon” she says confidently drawing herself up to full height and mockingly growling along with Beth. Simeon: “I'm still bigger than you” he says matter of factly stating the obvious. Beth: “Maybe but can you take all 3 of us?” Seer gets to their feet and quickly runs up next to Beth ready for round 2 with their dad. Simeon: “you'll have to catch me first he says sticking out his tounge and dashing out of the clearing with his 3 children in hot pursuit.
After run brushing
Chapter Summary Being in the woods has lead to Seer being covered in dirt and debris so Beth decides to give Seer a nice brushing session like they did after Beth's hunting trips
Simeon dashes out of the tree line and towards the den. With Seer, Claire and Beth on his tail. He dashes towards the den and up the wooden steps and through the front door. He shifts back into his human form his overalls overnight his muscular body. and smiles smugly at the wolves as they come in. Simeon: “I won sweeties” and laughs before wiping the sweat off his forehead. Genieve: “wow looks like you lot had some fun. Maybe next time me and Knight can come too.” Claire and Beth stop easily and they also shift back. But Seer being inexperienced in their new form their overalls also shifting back and covering their body. Beths design working well. Slides along the shinny wooden floor and smacks into the wall across the room. Beth: “Beautiful you alright” Seer nods happily and shakes their head to clear it. They're tail is wagging like crazy smacking onto the side of their body and they pant with their tounge hanging out. Claire: “looks like someone needs some help calming down. Luckily their is a way we can help you with that. Isn't there Beth?” she says looking at Swer and putting their head gently. Beth: “that's right. Now it's my turn to pamper you beautiful. Now I'm going to go get my brush then you can experience the pleasure of being groomed.” She says happily before walking away up the stairs them creaking as she climbs Simeon also walks away to take a shower and change out of his overalls. As he waks past Seer he gives them a large stroke on their back. “I'll never forget this night. You won't either. It was amazing my child. I love you” he continues walking. Claire keeps staring at Seer before the sound of footsteps from the next room pulls her gaze away as Ranger steps into the room. Dressed in comfy evening wear along with their signature Ranger hat. Seer notices that when Claire sees Ranger her grin widens. And they feel even happier for her. And make a note to tell Beth and Simeon about it later. Claire: “Hey there hotshot. I'm guessing Knight and Evie told you about recent events” she says in a warm voice a little louder than normal since she feels excited about the nights run. Ranger smiles back at Ranger. “Evie said that next time we should all go together.” he says excitedly loving the idea Claire: “how would you keep up with us?” Ranger: “easy I'd borrow your bike.” They laugh. Seer continues watching and listening they feel so happy that their relationship seems to be going strong. After all Claire deserves it and so does Ranger. Beth walks down the stairs carrying her fur brush having kept her overalls on since she's probably going to be covered in wolf hair from Seers brushing. Beth sits on the floor next to her mate. And pats her lap inviting Seer to lie their head their. “Beautiful this is going to feel lovely after all I enjoy it when you do it for me” She begins sliding the brush gently along Seers fur making a warm sound as it flides along. Seers eyes flutter as their skin is messaged by Beth's warm hands and brush. Lose hair begins coming free of Seers form. And sticking to the brush. Ranger steps forward wanting to help Beth clean the brush. But they also want to study how Beth brushes Seer taking mental notes for when they will do it for Claire. Ranger also reaches up and starts to scratch Seer behind their ears. Making a scratching sound and causing Seer to whine like a puppy. Beth “see beautiful feels lovely doesn't it. Plus now you're the puppy not me she teases.” Seer pays attention to what Beth says since she is always their first priority regardless of the situation. But they decide to ignore the teasing aspect wanting to instead to let them all enjoy the moment and the warm feelings it gives them.
Seer speaks with the vampire Celiene
Chapter Summary Having some self doubt Seer decides to visit an old friend of the pack. Celiene since her age gives her alot of wisdom
On a dark cloudless night Seer runs through the woods alone as a wolf their powerful hearing the sounds of owls and night insects. When they finally reached the edge of the woods they slide to a stop. Since he feels nervous about what they are about to do his ears perk up subconsciously listening for any sounds of danger despite knowing that there wouldn't be any and even if there was the vampire court would rush to his aid should it be needed. Seer starts to think over what they are going to say for the hundredth time that night. While they look over the Manor house warm light shining through it's windows the blackout curtains being opened after sun set. Seer knew that the curtains extended towards the ground leaving no chance of sunlight getting through. Seer shakes their head to clear it. And to pull themselves back to reality. They tended to space out alot even without their visons they change into their form. And their overalls slide onto their body. Before walking towards the manors front door. They stare at the door its polished wood glistening in the moon and star light. Seer thinks about if they shoud know or just walk in. Celiene knows they're visiting having requested a invite awhile ago plus celiene knows they're there since she can hear them. Seer opens the door quietly and walks in the door doesn't make a sound since it's so well made and maintained. Seer enters the living room. The walls are painted dark colors and a fire crackles all to make the room feel cozy and warm to make the courts visitors feel ease. “Hello my dear Oracle.” a warm comforting voice says from the top of a set of stairs. There stands the vampire Queen Celiene dressed in a lose comfortable shirt and worn jeans. Still looking lovely as she calmly walks down the stairs looking like a beautiful godess. At the bottom of the stairs Celiene gives Seer a gentle hug. “you look well my dear. But where is Bethany?” Asks Celiene “She's at the Den sleeping. She offered to come but I wanted to be alone tonight. Besides she needs to rest since she's been super busy with her seamstress work and hunting with the pack. She deserves a night off” Celiene gestures to some furniture and they walk together and sit down. On a pair of leather seats near a coffee table “can I offer you a drink? Coffee? tea? Water?” Seer just shakes their head wanting to get to the reason they visiting. “Celiene do you miss being human or want to be human again?” Asks Seer leaning foreward. Celiene thinks about it. She leans back in her chair and pondered the question. “Well my dear. I don't remember my human life so I can't miss what I don't know. As for being human…. It has both upsides and downsides just like being a vampire. I have all the time in the world to read and study whatever I want plus i have my court. But I do sometimes wish I could go for a walk in the sunlight and I do miss all the people I've lost over my lifetime. Why do you ask?” Seer considers what she said. Noting that she does have good points “well you didn't choose to be turned into a vampire and their is no way back for you. It seems unfair” Celiene nods “my dear Oracle life is unfair for everyone. You need to make the most of your life and the choices you make” Seer nods and sits back again. “I didn't choose to be a shifter but if I could I would have. But….. I keep wondering if I'm still human. It feels wonderful when I'm a wolf it feels right. Like I'm free. Maybe I'm losing my old self” Seer looks down solemnly “Celiene leans foreward and puts her hands on Seers shoulder. “in wolf or human form you're still you. Just I'm still me even if I was turned. I believe that it feels better for you as a wolf because it allows you to let go” Seer looks at her confused Celiene explains “when your in your wolf form you don't have to act human and and can wrestle and play without having to worry about people judging you since you're a wolf.” Seer thinks about Cewolfs's words and smiles nodding “I imagine me being a wolf makes me feel like I belong with my pack” says Seer their eyes softening as they think about happy memories with Beth and the others “Bethany loved you before you became a shifter along with the rest of the pack” says Celiene. “they are the best thing that ever happened to me. And so are you” says Seer. “Thank you Celiene. I'm finally at peace” “Why didn't you speak to Bethany about all this?” Asks Celine giving them a curious look. “I thought about it….. But she still feels bad about hurting me. No matter how many times I tell her that it isn't her fault. I don't want to make her feel worse. She's done so much for me” “And you've done alot for her and her pack.” Says Celiene cutting in “Claire told me about the warning you gave Bethany about the poacher traps. And about the fire at the ranger station. You've brought safety and love to you're pack” Seer brushes her off but concedes she once again has a point. Seer and Celiene relax again and talk together until Seer falls asleep. Celiene thinks about calling Beth but she chooses to let her rest.
Troubling vison and a cozy bed
Chapter Summary During the night Seer has a vison while they sleep with Beth but they decide not to give her ang details about it since they don't want to worry her more
Beth and Seer stand on the dens balcony together its the very early morning Seer having been woken up by a nightmare. Through they aren't sure yet if it's a vison or if it was a regular nightmare. Beth is concerned but Seer puts on a brave face determined to not let Beth get more worried. Seer shivers in the cold while they take a deep breath hoping the chilled air of the wilderness will help them relax. “Love you can go back to sleep if you want too.” Says Seer turning to stare into Beth's beautiful eyes. But Beth shakes her head “they might be your visons but we're in this together now and forever” she says before pulling Seer closer to her. Eventually faitage gets the better of them and they walk together back inside being quiet not to wake up the others while they sneak back upstairs to the room Claire has lent them after she insisted Seer stay near her while they get used to being a shifter and Beth having refused to leave her mates side. They climb into their bed and relax on the thick matress with their warm blankets feeling cozy. “Honey will you shift for me?” Seer asks remembering back when they were ill and she let them cuddle with her wolf form to help them rest and get better. Beth nods quietly and she turns into her wolf form. Her fur is even thicker now due to the winter. Beth looks af Seer and they cant tell shes amsing if they're going to shift aswell since they know their mate well enough that they can tell what shes thinking. “I'd perfer to stay human since we don't want to break the bed” they say thinking about the time Knight and Evie did it. Secretly Seer also stays human since they don't want to risk accidently telling Beth what their vison was about since if they're both wolves they can communicate through their minds and Seer isn't used to censoring their thoughts. The love wolves snuggle up to each other and Seer puts their head against Beth's furry chest while Beth wraps her paws around Seer. They both drift off to sleep. Seer feeling warm and cozy but still troubled about what they saw.
Seer goes feral
Chapter Summary Seer starts to let their emotions go to Claire about their visons and being a Oracle
Seer wakes up in their bed still lying next to Beth, their mate still sleeps peacefully beside them. Seer quietly slips out off bed and walks out if the room. They walk down the stairs and met Claire who just came back from her early morning run. “You alright Seer? You look exhausted” Seer looks at her. “I I don't know” Claire gestures towards the couch in the dens living room and they sit down together facing each other “when you're ready” says Claire. Seer nods takes a deep breath and begins “Sometimes I hate having visons. Especially of bad things happening its only a possibility but that's the problem. I'm never sure about what to do about it. if I should say something or not. Since trying to avoid something might cause it to happen. But if I say nothing then you're not ready. I keep going in circles. Plus I'm an oracle so I could be seeing things that aren't real or could be the past or present which means that its already too late to do anything. Seer shudders and Claire keeps looking at Seer with concern not wanting to interrupt I told you about the fire at the ranger station and all that did was result in Ranger getting hurt. But if I didn't tell you it could have been worse. Seer starts to cry “Seer you're not being fair to yourself. You've done alot for us. You told us about the poacher traps that saved us from getting hurt. We're still greatful for that. “B but what about Evie. I didn't see her getting turned and now she's stuck in a fate she didn't choose and Knight aswell. Seer starts to hyperventilate. “Seer you need to calm down. You're still a new shifter this is dangerous” says Claire but Seer can't calm themselves and they start to shift. They begin to snarl at Claire like a mad beast. “Simon”Claire says quietly. While she slowly steps away from the wolf knowing that Seer isn't themselves and if they're threatening Seer might see them as a threat. Simon walks in and steps between Seer and Claire. “Seer I know you're in there” says Simon in vain. Claire “we just need to wait for them to snap out of it” says Claire. Both she and Simon continue to slowly back away as Seer continues to snarl their spit falling from their mouth onto the floor Beth wakes up and hears snarling she comes to investigate but stops dead on the stairs seeing whats happening bellow “Beth come help Seer calm down seeing you might make them snap out of it” Beth slowly walks down the stairs and looks deeply into her mates eyes and sees an animal behind them. “Beautiful? You need to calm down. Everything is going to be ok” says Beth still staring at Seers eyes. “they're terrified about their visons and the future” says Claire still weary “Beautiful remember those classes I took? They were so we could talk about your visons without freaking out. Like we did when you called me to help you sleep. We can talk about this. You need to come back to me.” Seers eyes begin to clear and they seem to snap awake. They take deep breaths and turn back into their human form. Seer realizes what happened. And begins to sob falling towards their knees “I'm sorry love. I I could have hurt you” Beth rushes foreward and Seer falls into her arms sobing like crazy while Beth tries to soothe them reassuring them it wasn't their fault and that they didn't do anything.

Plus size girl (18-20+) heading to an East Coast West Coast trip with 2 weddings.
Would love your advice, I'm going to try to do a trip report on this as well, with pics.
9 full days, staying mostly hotels. May be able to do a load of laundry one time day 4.
Both weddings have different dress codes (nice but casual, cocktail but on the beach for the other wedding.)
Weather seems similar, but cooler in where we will be on the west coast.
Wedding attire for both: - cobalt district dress (now cobalt street)
- ECCO WOMEN'S FLOWT LX WEDGE SANDAL -black sweater for both events, just in case
-Need to find a strapless bra. This is super hard because I just let go of my old one because it was way too small. - tank dress (eddie bauer) - for other wedding events - 1 thin belt
Need to bring my laptop etc. as I'm working during this trip.
Normal clothes/packing stuff:
Jacket - ll bean anorak (love this, sprayed it so it should be more water resistant)
Summer hoodie - old threadbare - 11 pairs of underwear (including period underwear) - could pair down, but I'm kind of anxious about thjs. - 3 pairs of socks - 2 linen tops, different colors - 1 white spanx air essentials top (testing to see if I like it, not sure yet) - 4 tanks/spagetti straps (will use the tanks in place of a shirt some days and will sleep in the spagetti straps too.) The spagetti straps are also emotional support LOL - 1 pair of sleep shorts - 2 pairs of linen short - 2 honey love bras - 1 pair of cropped leggings (nicer) - 1 pair of running shorts - 1 pair of black leggings - 1 hat packable - 1 one piece swimsuit - 1 button-down jean shirt - travel memory foam side sleeper pillow (can not sleep without) - 1 pair of tevas
-travel outfit - leggings, black tank and t-shirt, socks, and waterproof trail runners, undies
-Toiletries- decanted sunblock, retinol, vitamin C, moisturizer: blush, mascara, mini vasoline, contacts, contact case/solution, glasses, curl cream toothpaste, prescrition drugs & nasal spray, Hairbrush, toothbrush
-Small jewelry
Lastly, a couple snacks, phone holders, fans, big and small heaphones, and a deck of cards.
Bag: 1.5 technically - Backpack , hoping all this crap fits into my north face boriealis with the magic of compression packing cubes. - Personal item - coach mollie bucket bag 22. I love this, and I'm excited to take this on a trip! It fits my over the ear headphones, etc.

Good morning everyone hope you’re well.
I’m in a délicate situation and I need help cause I think I’m done.
Let me explain you all the situation (please take time to read you’ll save a life) I’m moving from my country in Africa to come in Canada for studies. My first year I was at university of Montreal et after that I transferred to Concordia in pure applied mathematics but my goal was to get into the university to transfer in mechanical engineering. So my English level wasn’t that good so I need to do continuing education in fall 2022 after that I started my program.
I took four courses full time (Engr 213, 242, Math 251 and 208)in winter 2023. My first semester was very difficult I didn’t know nobody and I was still struggling with the langage. I passed 3 courses with D C and B and I failed one. So my GPA was 1.8 and my ACGPA was 1.35 (idk why). So I receive the first failed assessment.
So in fall 2023, I was very motivated and determined to get above 2.0 I took 3 courses (Engr 233,213 and 251). But few weeks after the start of the semester I losted my grandmother. I was devastated I wasn’t able to do anything but on my status of international student I wasn’t able to drop all the classes so I dropped one of them get D- in one and failed the last one so It put my GPA for the term at 0.35 and I received the message to aware me.
But I have read that the ACGPA was summer winter and fall so I thought I had time (that was my mistake) so in winter 2024 I took 4 classes (Engr 301, Esl 202, Unss and Engr 201) I passed one with D and the other 3 with B so that put my term GPA at 2,5.
So I thought that if I’m good in the summer 2024 I’ll so I took Engr 233(the course I failed in fall 2023) again and Engr 242.
But after the winter term I received the message that I’m suspended from the school for 2 years.
I don’t know what to do please help me im begging y’all I’m not good mentally this new destroyed me I tried to stay focus on my summer term but it is really hard and my study permit expire in August I need to renew it.
I tried to explain the situation to my advisor but I didn’t get his feedback yet .
Yall think There is a solution about my situation. Please help me guys.

Like most of us, before taking the NCLEX I spent several weeks scouring this sub, looking for any and all advice seeing everyone's scores, comparing my own to theirs. I graduated in December and started studying around Christmas. My school uses Kaplan and because it was free for me, Kaplan is what I used. I passed all 3 CATS with green and yellow topics, but all overall green. My readiness exam I got a 63% on. I would do a few q-bank questions each day, downloaded Mark-k notes, and watched Youtube videos, trying to keep the VERY SMALL amount of energy nursing school sucked from me to give it one last big push to pass. The last 10 days before my exam, I really cracked down. I would do at minimum 85 questions per day, and remediate the ones I got wrong. I never felt ready, or like it was enough, and man I was BURNT out. The morning of my exam I was so anxious. I got there, signed in, they sealed my phone, explained the rules, etc. and there I was sitting in front of the screen, knowing my future was in the hands of how well i did or did not do on this exam. I don't know what I was expecting, but it was not this. 90% of my content was SATA, Bow-tie, and Case studies. There was only ONE question out of the entirety that I was confident in. Just some of my thoughts were: wtf? I have no clue dude?! what is this asking me? fuck, both (or more) of these answers could be right. Out of everything I studied, only a few things I felt I really saw on my exam. I felt defeated. I was guessing 100% of the time. I was done for I thought.The screen went to 85, and after I answered, it ended. Well shit. Either I did really good, or really bad. I got c the exam, cried to all of my family, and basically was a toddler throwing a fit over the entire weekend that I was a failure and "this isn't fair". To make matters worse, my state board doesn't post active licenses over the wekend. So here I am refreshing my state's page 50 times per day, with nothing to show for it. I did do the PVT and got the good-pop up. but I didn't believe it whatsoever. Finally, this morning I got the e-mail from my state board issuing my license, and unofficial results showed Pass. That is my story, now here is my advice and some resources I used:

1. You will feel that you failed AND that you were the exception to the rule that most people pass first try. No one could convince me otherwise. Right after the exam I was looking on reddit about anyone who failed in 85, and in my head it was real that I must've done so bad that I didn't even get the opportunity to get to 150 questions. So, you will feel that you failed. Miserably. That is VERY normal, normalize it. Embrace it even. Go cry. I know I did. But then, say fuck it and go do something fun. Go out to eat, whatever it is. You studied, you took a hard exam, there are a lot of unknowns, but do something fun for yourself. Don't be me and sit at home crying and pitying myself.
   
2. I used the famous Mark K lecture notes/lectures. I'm going to be honest and say that I blacked out durin exam and do not recall using any techniques he mentioned, but he's popular for a reason, and he has a lot of good info.
   
3. YouTube videos, particularly In particular: Addison's and Cushing's disease review PPE precautions (definitely know these!) Blood thinners For those who struggle with NGN questions, his case study walk throughs DI vs SIADH (need to know as well imo!) Any of his labor + delivery/OB videos. I'd get quite comfy and confident in learning FHR strips + their interventions Mark k nclex review by beautiful nursing (great for understanding the basics)
   
4. IF you do fail, try, try again. Don't compare yourself to anyone else. I know. That is incredibly difficult, and quite frankly, annoying to hear. But my point is that you must keep trying. You were able to kick nursing schools as? and this is just the last step you need to continue you nurse journey! Keep going.
   
5. If you're an anxious person like me, I recommend not taking your exam on a Friday or Saturday, unless you know your board releases active licenses over those days. I had to wait 48 hours, and I'm an anxious mess so that was killer.
   
6. No amount of studying I felt truly prepared me for what I saw. This may be an unpopular opinion, and I don't discourage anyone from studying, but l'm gonna be honest, I studied from around 8-8 at night, and considering that only a few things were on the exam out of the 1600 q-bank questions I did, I felt that i shouldn't have been so hard on myself. I would say, do lots of practice questions, but please, don't study from sunrise to sundown like I did. Do 85-100 questions per day, maybe with a mark-k lecture and remediate and REALLY absorb that info, then take the evening off. I over did it. Unnecessary. The reality is, I didn't understand most of what they were asking for, and had to get comfy with guessing. I will be adding more to this list, but these are my most important messages I wanted to convey. You all can do it, and if you have any questions I am happy to help in a my way I can. Good luck future nurses, I believe in you!